Welcome to the eleventh season of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series. For those of you who are new to our little group, we follow four simple steps to make our picks. While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past. We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter to give me your thoughts!
Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups
As the season winds down, the division matchups are getting crazier and crazier. To start the week we saw the Raiders, a team that struggled to score three points the week prior, put up a whopping 63 points on the Chargers (so much for the under being a lock in that game). Then on Sunday we saw the Titans take the Texans into overtime only for the Texans to barely avoid a tie at the end. Finally the big upset of the week happened down in Carolina, where the lowly Panthers somehow upset the Falcons despite never making it into the endzone. What a week!
Every year one of the top teams gets upset by a division rival. The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen. Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding these division matchups:
- Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
- Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
- Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
- New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups
By Sunday night we were lucky enough to have experienced three prime time games already. Unfortunately, all three were blowouts with an average margin of victory of 28 points. Then came Monday night. Despite the game being in Seattle, the Eagles were favored by 4.5 points and were expected to get back on track after a tough two game losing streak. In fact, the Eagles seemed in control from their first drive and throughout most of the game. That is, until the final 30 seconds when Drew Lock put his mark on the game and pulled off the last minute upset to shut the door on week 15. Poor Eagles but an eliminator lesson for us all.
For whatever reason, when primetime hits, some teams rise to the occasion while others shrink in the bright lights. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:
- New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams
- Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Chargers
- New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos
- Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage
What a week for the home crowd! This past weekend, 11 of 16 games were won by the home team including the Thursday night game, all three Friday games and the Monday night game. We saw massive upsets by Carolina and Seattle and home field advantage seems ready to make a comeback!
While home field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with. While this is one of our softer rules, I’m not ready to give up on it yet. Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:
- Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
- Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Chargers
- Seattle Seahawks @ Tennessee Titans
- Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
- Green Bay Packers @ Carolina Panthers
- Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans
Step 4 – Make your pick!
My pick of the week is:
- Denver Broncos over the New England Patriots
Despite being the team that almost gave up the most points in NFL history only a few months ago, this is a different Broncos team, and they are still fighting for one of those final playoff spots. On the other side of the field is a Patriots team that seems destined for a new coach and a top three draft pick. With this game in Denver, I just don’t see many scenarios where the Patriots pull off the upset, even under the bright lights of prime time.
Other options I like this week:
- Philadelphia Eagles over the New York Giants
If somehow you haven’t used the Eagles yet, now is the time. This team is too good to lose four in a row, at home, hosting the Giants. Division game be dammed, I’m going with the Eagles here.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Jacksonville Jaguars
In an effort to find a team you haven’t used yet this season, take a look at Tampa Bay. At 7-7 they are shockingly winning their division and have a chance to host a playoff game in less than a month. On the other side is a Jaguars team with injuries across the board and may be without their starting quarterback. While not the safest of picks, when you get this late in the season you need to take some flyers.
Last Week’s Record = 3-0
Season Record = 35-10
Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!
Thanks for reading!
