Welcome to the eleventh season of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series. For those of you who are new to our little group, we follow four simple steps to make our picks. While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past. We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter to give me your thoughts!
Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups
If you want to know why to avoid division games, all you have to do is take a look at the NFC North. Last Sunday the 9-3 division leading Detroit Lions traveled to the 4-8 Chicago Bears. We all know what happens when a top team in a division travels to a bottom dweller in December, right? Chicago not only won, but won convincingly by multiple touchdowns and shut out the high powered Lion’s offence in three of four quarters. Player beware!
Every year one of the top teams gets upset by a division rival. The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen. Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding these division matchups:
- Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders
- Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
- Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
- New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
- San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups
Who would have thought the only prime time game to not be an upset was Dallas winning over Philly on Sunday night. As if the two-win Patriots beating the Steelers Thursday night wasn’t shocking enough, we then saw the Giants beat the Packers and the Titans beat the Dolphins in shocking form on Monday night. Upsets galore!
For whatever reason, when primetime hits, some teams rise to the occasion while others shrink in the bright lights. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:
- Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders
- Denver Broncos @ Detroit Lions
- Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage
While the Raiders couldn’t pull off the sweep on Sunday, the Bears, Bengals and Jets, the three other home underdogs of last Sunday, showed us that home field advantage is far from over in the NFL.
While home field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with. While this is one of our softer rules, I’m not ready to give up on it yet. Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:
- Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
- San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
- Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks
- Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots
Step 4 – Make your pick!
My pick of the week is:
- Los Angeles Rams over the Washington Commanders
Despite losing a close game to the AFC leading Ravens last weekend, the Rams are getting hot at the right time, and with the Commanders needing to travel across the country for this one, I think this is a safe pick.
Other options I like this week:
- Cleveland Browns over the Chicago Bears
Joe Flacco leading a defensive powerhouse to the promised land? I’ve heard this story before.
- Cincinnati Bengals over the Minnesota Vikings
One of these two teams has been happy with the play of their backup quarterback. With this game being in Cincy as well, I’m going with the Bengals.
Last Week’s Record = 3-0
Season Record = 32-10
Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!
Thanks for reading!
