Welcome to the eleventh season of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series. For those of you who are new to our little group, we follow four simple steps to make our picks. While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past. We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter to give me your thoughts!
Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups
With only four division games last week we didn’t have a ton of games we needed to avoid, but boy did they give us a reason to avoid them. The largest margin of victory was only eight points, we saw the Steelers upset the Bengals on Saturday only to then see the Raiders upset the Chiefs in Kansas City on Christmas Day. Wow!
Every year one of the top teams gets upset by a division rival. The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen. Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding these division matchups:
- New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
- New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
- Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups
Last week there were three ok matchups and one Monday night game that you wanted to wait the whole week for. Unfortunately, that Monday night game was the biggest blowout of the four with the Ravens easily taking care of the 49ers even though the 49ers were favored by almost a touchdown. Prime time last week brought us the Patriots upset over Denver in Denver as well as came very close to giving us a massive Chargers upset over the Bills, but the Bills held on in the final seconds. This season’s prime time games have been almost as scary to choose as the division ones!
For whatever reason, when primetime hits, some teams rise to the occasion while others shrink in the bright lights. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:
- New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns
- Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys
- Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage
One week of home field advantage peaking its head out of the shadow was followed by it completely disappearing again last weekend. The Chiefs, Broncos and 49ers are just three examples of teams not only shying away from home field advantage, but instead flat out insulting our third step. This will be something we strongly review for 2024.
While home field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with. While this is one of our softer rules, I’m not ready to give up on it yet. Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:
- San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Commanders
- Los Angeles Rams @ Denver Broncos
Step 4 – Make your pick!
My pick of the week is:
- Jacksonville Jaguars over the Carolina Panthers
Their season is on life support. They are quickly losing their grip on the division. Their star quarterback is hurt. If there is ever a time to rise above all these issues and get the division back, it’s when you’re hosting the worst team in the NFL.
Other options I like this week:
- Philadelphia Eagles over the Arizona Cardinals
If by some miracle you haven’t used the Eagles yet this season than you are in for a treat, and this is the week you have been saving them for.
- Cleveland Browns over the New York Jets
Prime time be damned, the Browns are on a mission and the Jets are running out of quarterbacks who can play. Expect the Jets to struggle scoring any points in this one on a short week, traveling to Cleveland.
Last Week’s Record = 2-1
Season Record = 37-11
Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!
Thanks for reading!
