Welcome to the eleventh season of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series. For those of you who are new to our little group, we follow four simple steps to make our picks. While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past. We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter to give me your thoughts!
Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups
While we only had two division games last weekend, we had some great ones. In Indy we saw the Colts lose their starting quarterback only to have their backup enter the game and defeat their division rivals, the Titans, by seven points. Then up in Pittsburgh, the Ravens had every opportunity to put away their division foes, but they just couldn’t get it done and the Steelers came back to win in the final minutes. According to espn’s win probability chart, the Ravens were favored to win the entire game up until the final 2 minutes of regulation. An upset and a nailbiter all in one!
Every year one of the top teams gets upset by a division rival. The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen. Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding these division matchups:
- Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
- Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
- Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups
While we unexpectedly did not get a great game Sunday night, one many were anticipating and which turned out to be an absolute blow out, instead we got a good one on Monday night. While it might not have been the most exciting matchup, the Raiders and Packers game included multiple lead changes, and was decided by only four points. Let’s also not ignore the fact that the blowout on Thursday night actually resulted in the team Vegas favored by six points being the one who lost by 20. Upsets, close games, you name it, you got it!
For whatever reason, when primetime hits, some teams rise to the occasion while others shrink in the bright lights. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:
- Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
- New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills
- Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Chargers
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage
While we didn’t see a ton of upsets coming at the hands of the home crowd last weekend, we did see the Steelers pull off a big one that was already mentioned and the Raiders pulled off a small upset, although I believe the line moved to slightly favor them by kickoff. While this may be our softest rule, we aren’t giving up on it yet. Don’t forget what happened to Dallas not too long ago.
While home field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with. While this is one of our softer rules, I’m not ready to give up on it yet. Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:
- Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans
- Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
- San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns
- Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- New Orleans Saints @ Houston Texans
- Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets
- Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Chargers
Step 4 – Make your pick!
My pick of the week is:
- Miami Dolphins over the Carolina Panthers
Hopefully I’m not jinxing myself here as I’ll be in attendance for this one, but the Dolphins have looked downright unstoppable at home this season. At the other end is a Panthers team that is struggling mightily early in the season. In years past this would be a trap game for the Dolphins, but here’s to hoping this is a whole new Dolphins regime.
Other options I like this week:
- Las Vegas Raiders over the New England Patriots
While not my favorite pick of the week, the Patriots look down right awful and there are a ton of story lines about an old disciple coming back to play the man who taught him how to coach. While I don’t expect the Patriots to suffer their third blow out in a row, I also don’t think they can score enough points to win this game.
- Buffalo Bills over the New York Giants
Not only do I find it hard to believe that this Bills team is capable of losing two games in a row, I find it more unlikely that this Giants team has any shot in hell at winning this game. Despite this being a prime time game, I expect the Bills to take all their frustration out on a Giants team seemingly giving up 10 sacks a week. If you have Von Miller in any IDP fantasy leagues, this is the week to start him!
Last Week’s Record = 2-1
Season Record = 11-4
Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!
Thanks for reading!
