Welcome to the eleventh season of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series. For those of you who are new to our little group, we follow four simple steps to make our picks. While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past. We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter to give me your thoughts!
Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups
With a large slate of division games last weekend, we didn’t see any major upsets, but we certainly were close. The Washington Commanders traveled to Philadelphia and took the defending NFC champion Eagles into over time before narrowing losing by a field goal. Every week you should expect the unexpected with division matchups and this year is proving no different than years past.
Every year one of the top teams gets upset by a division rival. The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen. Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding these division matchups:
- Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
- Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups
On Sunday night of last week, we were not even through the first quarter and the Chiefs were already up 17-0 on the hapless Jets. Everyone was predicting a blowout, money was pouring in for the Chiefs to cover a betting line that was barely over a touchdown. Then momentum shifted. Before we knew it, it was early in the 3rd quarter and the game was tied at 20. While the final result favored the Chiefs, it was a wild back and forth match that was only decided by a field goal and could have easily gone either way. Seems like even Mahomes isn’t immune to the unexpected nature of prime time games.
For whatever reason, when primetime hits, some teams rise to the occasion while others shrink in the bright lights. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:
- Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders
- Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers
- Green Bay Packers @ Las Vegas Raiders
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage
While the Jets came just shy of defending home field advantage on Sunday night, we actually saw multiple upsets of road teams that no one saw coming. In fact, the common thread might have been the unwarranted confidence in the AFC North. The Bengals and Steelers both traveled to stadiums away from home with the Vegas lines favoring each of them by about a field goal. Fast forward to the end of the games and not only did both teams lose, but they both lost by exactly 24 points. They also combined for less than 10 points offensively between the two of them. Maybe the AFC North is vastly overrated, or maybe we need to keep being aware of home field advantage 😊
While home field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with. While this is one of our softer rules, I’m not ready to give up on it yet. Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:
- Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
- Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams
- Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals
- Kansas City Chiefs @ Minnesota Vikings
- Green Bay Packers @ Las Vegas Raiders
Step 4 – Make your pick!
My pick of the week is:
- Detroit Lions over the Carolina Panthers
One of the hottest teams people were getting behind in the pre-season was the Detroit Lions. With a fiery coach, a quarterback looking for that Hollywood comeback story, and an offense filled with fantasy studs, this is a team everyone wanted to cheer for, and they a proving they might be the real deal. With wins on the road against both the Chiefs and the Packers, they are playing as good as anyone else in the league right now, and they should easily take care of a Panthers team that is struggling mightily.
Other options I like this week:
- Miami Dolphins over the New York Giants
While I normally wouldn’t pick a team that just got blown out the previous week, the Dolphins now have a lot to prove and after playing three of their first four games on the road, they finally get to come home for a few games in a row. Let’s not forget what happened the last time the Dolphins got to play in front of their home crowd.
- Buffalo Bills over the Jacksonville Jaguars
While I absolutely hate picking the international games, especially with the Jags having the advantage of staying in London for the past week and adjusted to the time zone, the reality is the Bills might be the best team in football right now, and only jetlag could save the Jaguars in this one.
Last Week’s Record = 3-0
Season Record = 9-3
Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!
Thanks for reading!
