Welcome to the eleventh season of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series. For those of you who are new to our little group, we follow four simple steps to make our picks. While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past. We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter to give me your thoughts!
Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups
With four division matchups last week we finally hit our first dud of the season. No major upsets, a blowout, and only one game decided by less than a touchdown. That being said, don’t let one down week make you forget about what we’ve seen the prior five weeks.
Every year one of the top teams gets upset by a division rival. The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen. Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding these division matchups:
- Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
- Washington Commanders @ New York Giants
- Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
- Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups
While division matchups may have let us down last weekend, prime time games certainly didn’t. The biggest margin of victory came on Thursday where somehow the Broncos porous defense held the Chiefs to only 19 points. Then on Sunday night we saw the Giants come one yard short of upsetting the Bills in Buffalo followed by the Cowboys squeaking out a three point victory of their own against the Chargers. These games were certainly not lacking the excitement factor that prime time has been delivering this season.
For whatever reason, when primetime hits, some teams rise to the occasion while others shrink in the bright lights. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:
- Jacksonville Jaguars @ New Orleans Saints
- Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles
- San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage
This season we have gone back and forth on if home field advantage still exists in the NFL. In week six, the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets entered the chat. Up in New York (or in New Jersey if we’re being specific), the Jets hosted the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles who were favored in Vegas by almost a touchdown. Move a bit west, and up in Cleveland, after the Browns starting quarterback was revealed he would miss the game, they hosted the undefeated 49ers who were favored by a whopping 9.5 points. Fast forward to the end of the day and no more undefeated teams remained in the NFL this season. Home field advantage is back!
While home field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with. While this is one of our softer rules, I’m not ready to give up on it yet. Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:
- Las Vegas Raiders @ Chicago Bears
- Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts
- Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
- Washington Commanders @ New York Giants
- Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos
- San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings
Step 4 – Make your pick!
My pick of the week is:
- Los Angeles Rams over the Pittsburgh Steelers
What a terrible week for an eliminator league. After going through all our steps we are left with only two options, the Ravens over the Lions or the Rams over the Steelers. While I don’t love either, this is my preferred pick of the two hoping that the return of Kupp will continue to keep this Ram’s train going, as well as the Steelers having to travel west to LA should put some jet lag on the table for them.
Other options I like this week:
- Seattle Seahawks over the Arizona Cardinals
If we have to go with rule breakers this week why not pick against the worst team in the league playing on the road. While I still believe anything can happen in a division matchup, here’s hoping the Seahawks can overcome it.
- Kansas City Chiefs over the Los Angeles Chargers
Again, if we have to break a rule, why not pick one of the best teams in the league facing a division foe who seems to always find a way to lose. Bonus points for this game being played in Kansas City.
Last Week’s Record = 3-0
Season Record = 14-4
Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!
Thanks for reading!
