Welcome to Week 8, Season 10, of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series! For those of you who are new to our series, we follow four simple steps to make our picks. While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past. We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to hit me up on Twitter to give me your thoughts!
Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups
There are two reasons why we don’t pick division matchups. These games can often become back-and-forth nail-biters like in Baltimore where the final score was decided by a missed field goal (and missed defensive offsides) in the final seconds. The other is what happened in Carolina where we saw a super bowl contender lose to a team selling assets and looking forward to the draft. I don’t know who saw Carolina winning that game, but that’s why we avoid division matchups at all costs!
Every single year one of the top teams gets upset by an underdog division rival. The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen. Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding this week’s division matchups:
- Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
- New England Patriots @ New York Jets
- Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
- San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
- Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups
It certainly was not the best week for prime time, but Sunday’s game became a defensive slugfest ending with an interception on the goal line as the final minutes ticked away. Can’t hate that! We also saw a bit of a shocker in New England where the Bears absolutely embarrassed the Patriots in front of the New England faithful. The duo of Patriot quarterbacks were clearly not ready for the bright lights of prime time.
Prime time games are in prime time for a reason. Expect close games where the unexpected can happen. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid this week’s marquee games:
- Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills
- Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage
Not only did we see the Panthers represent home-field advantage against their division rivals last Sunday, but even in the nation’s capital, we got to witness the Commanders upset the reeling Packers. Home-field advantage might be trying to make a comeback.
While home-field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with. Be aware of this week’s games where the favorite is the away team:
- Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Miami Dolphins @ Detroit Lions
- Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints
- New England Patriots @ New York Jets
- Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
- San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
- Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Step 4 – Make your pick!
My pick of the week is:
- Philadelphia Eagles over the Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers’ offense looked awful on Sunday night and this week they travel to play an Eagles team that might be the best team in the league. Coming off a bye week I expect the Eagles to score early and often and this should be over before halftime.
Other options I like this week:
- Dallas Cowboys over the Chicago Bears
While Dak looked a little rusty last weekend, they now host a Chicago team coming off a big win and a short week. I expect Dak to look better in Week 2, and I just don’t see the Bears winning back-to-back as they did in New England.
- Buffalo Bills over the Green Bay Packers
Here’s our rule-breaker pick of the week. While this is in prime time, the reality is the Bills are the best team in the AFC and they are hosting a Packers team that can’t seem to beat anyone. I just don’t see how a team that can’t beat the Commanders with a backup QB is beating Josh Allen in prime time.
Last Week’s Record = 2-1
Season Record = 11-9
Follow me on Twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!
Thanks for reading!
