After a one-week hiatus, I’m back to deliver some CFB DFS goodness for this week’s contests on DraftKings. Back in Week 9, there was tons of value offered up by yours truly. In the day contest, 3k rangers Mavin Anderson and Dimitri Stanley absolutely came through with multiple catch efforts at great prices. At the quarterback position, Garrett Shrader was the victim of the dreaded in-game injury to spoil his day for Syracuse. However, Arkansas’s K.J. Jefferson came through huge with a three-score day and 29.9 DK points in total.
At night, things played out just about perfectly with my three-legged building block of Antoine Green, Donovan Green, and Jared Brown who all outperformed their prices. In the case of Antoine Green, quite drastically by throwing up a monster 10-180-2 line at his sub-4k tag! Definitely one of the best hits of the 2022 season from this post. Now, it’s time to find Week 11’s version of Mr. Green to get those lineups securely in the cash line. LFG!
As always, the purpose of every post I make here is to attempt to identify value for any particular slate. I am never going to offer the most expensive, obvious, and essentially best players as my “suggestions” or “picks” for a slate. I’m trying to point out options that could help you afford those players and/or options that I believe could provide similar results at a cheaper price based on logic and statistical evidence. That said, let’s talk about some of my favorite plays for the Week 11 Saturday slates!
Tyler Lavine | RB | SMU $3,400
With injuries to running backs Tre Siggers and Camar Wheaton, Lavine has taken the reigns for the Mustangs as the lead tailback the last two weeks. And, the unheralded senior has made the most of it piling up 218 rushing yards on 42 carries with four rushing touchdowns. The cowboy collar-wearing goal-line specialist probably isn’t going to blow anyone away with his athleticism. But his straightforward, contact-embracing style has proven to be very effective in the RB1 role so far.
Yes, there will be a fair amount of risk if his teammates can suit up Saturday. However, I would assess it at a pretty low level considering his price, and a strong likelihood of maintaining a goal-line role in a very offense-friendly matchup that should see plenty of scoring opportunities.
Plus, who’s to say Lavine hasn’t earned the lead role regardless of who is available Saturday? The offense has been humming with Lavine more heavily involved in the last two games, both of which were wins. And, it isn’t exactly as if Siggers and/or Wheaton were Adrian Peterson when they were healthy anyways. Given the price, I’ll gladly speculate that Lavine continues to garner the lion’s share of touches in this backfield Saturday afternoon in a DFS dream matchup.
Additionally, don’t sleep on Mustang receiver Dylan Goffney as an ideal contest minimum-price dart throw candidate. His production has been volatile but has also flashed tremendous upside at different times this season.
Xavier Weaver | WR | South Florida $5,900
I’ve spent the last few weeks emphasizing mid-range targets that, given the circumstances, are capable of producing ceilings that will compete with the highest-priced players at their position. In that same scrumptious matchup mentioned above, this Orlando native is exactly that.
His average 6-83 line this season is already worthy of consideration for a roster spot at his price. Add to that his proven track for much more in multiple games this season as the clear WR1 (and pretty much only offensive threat) for the Bulls, and Weaver profiles perfectly as a mid-range target with the proper fantasy stew to outperform his price.
Logan Diggs | RB | Notre Dame $4,500
In the Irish backfield, Diggs has been getting the ball early and often in the last three games. His 65 carries and 329 yards both lead the team, and it appears he and Audric Estime are now serving as the 1-2 punch in a run-heavy offense. The matchup against Navy isn’t great on the surface. But, if you take a closer look at their week-to-week competition, the Midshipmen’s highly-ranked run defense doesn’t scare me. If Diggs’s 20ish carry volume continues, he should be able to produce enough to return value in his price range at a position where that is very difficult to find.
Night Contest
I can already feel the FOMO coming on trying to fade the UNC/Wake Forest quarterbacks in a small slate like this. But, let’s give it a try! All-world freshman recruit Conner Weigman is on track to start at Auburn for Texas A&M Saturday night. In his first college career start, he lit Ole Miss up for 338 yards and four scores. Now back as QB1 after missing last week with the flu, his matchup is great and his $4,900 rate is even better. A QB/WR stack of him and his fellow bought and paid-for freshman, Evan Stewart, has the upside to flirt with what is sure to be very popular UNC/WF stacks at a fraction of the price.
At the running back position, Oregon St.’s Damien Martinez at an even 5k is that mid-range target that has everything going for him on paper to continue a very successful freshman season. As the clear lead back the last three games, he’s averaged a sizzling seven yards per tote, adding two catches for 50 yards. Being substantial favorites at home against Cal should help the Texas native sustain his positive trend with legit potential for a boom game.
Two tight ends with great matchups and very solidified roles in their respective team offenses are Ja’Tavion Sanders for the Longhorns, and Mason Fairchild for the Jayhawks. Sanders, I’ve mentioned tons already this season for obvious reasons. He continues to be undervalued at 4k in a very friendly matchup at home against TCU under the lights.
After missing time earlier this season due to injury, Fairchild has been on a roll hauling in 11 passes and three touchdowns in his last three games. Both are solid building block options that provide safe floors with decent upside in the night contest.
Good luck in Week 11! Follow me on Twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always appreciated.
