Welcome back to the latest edition of CFB DFS magic! Last week was a mixed bag of results. While Irish tight end Michael Mayer paid off huge, quarterback suggestions were about as fruitful as the rest of Notre Dame’s offense sans Mayer. As true as it is in real and fake football, not all slates are created equally. This week, the board is so uninteresting in terms of good games, the Biden administration is mandating that all citizens observing Saturday’s action are required to gamble and/or set a DFS lineup in order to protect themselves and others from the spread of boredom. Let’s see if I can help the cause with those DFS lineups.
The purpose of every post I make here is to attempt to identify value for any particular slate. I am never going to offer the most expensive, obvious, and essentially best players as my “suggestions” or “picks” for a slate. I’m trying to point out options that could help you afford those players and/or options that I believe could provide similar results at a cheaper price based on logic and statistical evidence. That said, let’s talk some of my favorite plays for the Week 3 Saturday afternoon slate!
Charles McClelland | RB | Cincinnati $3,700
The Bearcats’ backfield is still in the process of establishing a clear pecking order through their first two games. Ryan Montgomery was the first to see carries in Week 1 against Arkansas and ended up getting injured. After he left that game, it turned into the dreaded three-headed monster between Corey Kiner, Myles Montgomery, and McClelland. Of those three RBs, the senior veteran made the most of his opportunity averaging 9.6 yards on nine total touches. That performance earned McClelland the start in Week 2 against some made-up school called Kennesaw State where he managed 80 total yards on 11 touches with a score in a blowout win.
Stay tuned on Ryan Montgomery’s status this week, but if he is held out again McClelland should benefit and would be a great value at this price in a soft matchup. Even if Montgomery is available to play, it’s fair to speculate that McClelland has shown enough so far that he is the leader in this group of tailbacks for now. With tons of potential matchups, game flow risk, and playing time uncertainty issues for mid-range players at this position, I’d rather pay down for this guy than someone like Nick Singleton against Auburn. Or, either of the NIU running backs against Vandy. And, we know that as good and productive as Georgia will be, their RBs are not to be trusted here–this is a safe space.
If you aren’t into paying top dollar for Mo Ibrahim or aren’t feeling McClelland, Auburn transfer Shaun Shivers has been the feature tailback for Indiana so far this season. They have one of the tastiest CFB DFS games on the board against Western Kentucky. With a likely workload of 15-20 touches, he should eat on Saturday. Is that a segue I hear?
Cam Camper | WR | Indiana $4,800
Also for the Hoosiers, this JUCO transfer made an immediate impact with a monster 11-156 line in Indiana’s opening week win over Illinois. Whether he is the WR1 or 1A to D.J. Matthews Jr., he definitely has a sizable role in the passing game. Pair that with this matchup where both offenses got north of 30 points last year, Camper is my favorite floor/ceiling/price combo at the receiver position on this board.
Also, consider WKU’s Daewood Davis for all the same reasons. Along with the aforementioned Mayer, Davis’s price should be about 1k higher than it is and likely will be soon.
Garrett Shrader | QB | Syracuse $6,400
The former Mississippi St. converted wideout escaped Mike Leach’s dungeon for Dino Baber’s Orange where he has reclaimed his QB1 role for a Division I program. The dual threat quarterback’s rushing stats is where he separates himself from the other paydown options at his position. Last season, he racked up 14 rushing touchdowns on the season and displayed immense upside in multiple games. He already has a three and five touchdown performance under his belt in his first two games this season. Going against the Small Ten’s Boilermakers at home on Saturday with a Vegas projection of a back and forth shootout (Cuse -1, O/U 61), he has a perfect script to outperform his price. I would also consider Jeff Sims for similar reasons if you’re trying to save some cash at this position.
Brashard Smith | WR | Miami $3,000
Onto the night contest! How could you possibly afford the services Mr. Henderson (pictured above) you ask? This contest’s minimum price selection is the answer. With the news on top Canes wideout breaking this week after this contest was released, we have somewhat of a no-brainer here in this sophomore receiver. Smith, Michael Redding III, and Key’Shawn Smith are all logical candidates to benefit. Attempting to speculate as to who benefits the most is a complete guess, a total waste of time, and ultimately an endeavor I refuse to take part in.
What we do know is that Brashard Smith has an established, clear role through two games with the second most receptions behind Restrepo. And, more importantly, he’s the cheapest one!
Think about it like this: Pretend you’re choosing between three people to go on a date with. They are all equally attractive, but only one is guaranteed to end with sex. The other two could still be DTF, but it’s not guaranteed and you have no way of knowing who is who. If one requires to be taken to an expensive steakhouse, another is cool with a dive bar vibe, and the last one is just fine hitting the McDonald’s drive-through for some double cheeseburgers, which one are you picking for the date? Exactly. It’s just science. Brashard is the double cheeseburger in this scenario. You’re welcome.
Evan Stewart | WR | Texas A&M $3,800
This freshman was one of the most highly recruited prospects of his class in the nation. After starting and hauling five grabs in each of his first two college games, having him priced here still is just a classic DK mistake. Do I think the switch to Max Johnson as starting quarterback will change anything for Stewart’s potential this week? Not really. He’s a traditional pocket passer that has enough experience from his days at LSU so I’m expecting that he’ll be fine running the Aggie offense Saturday night. And, so in turn will be Stewart who is bound for breakout performance anytime now.
On another Texas team, the Longhorns tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders also remains incorrectly priced out in this contest. He probably doesn’t have the upside he could if Quinn Ewers were able to play, but he’s safe for 2-3 grabs with decent upside in a plus matchup. And, that’s enough to warrant consideration at his price.
Also, keep an eye on Jayden Reed’s status for Michigan St in their matchup at Washington. If he can’t go, Keon Coleman could see a ton of volume from Payton Thorne.
Good luck in Week 3! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always appreciated.