Welcome to Week 11, Season 10, of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series! For those of you who are new to our series, we follow four simple steps to make our picks. While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past. We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to hit me up on Twitter to give me your thoughts!
Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups
While there were only four division games last week, they certainly didn’t disappoint. From an excitement perspective, the best came from Chicago where the Lions and Bears went back and forth for the final score to only be decided by a single point. On top of that we also had a major upset on Monday night where the previously undefeated Eagles lost to their division rivals from Washington who at the time had a losing record. This is why we avoid these games at all costs!
Every single year one of the top teams gets upset by an underdog division rival. The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen. Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding this week’s division matchups:
- New York Jets @ New England Patriots
- Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos
- Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers
- Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
- San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups
When two of three prime time games end in an upset, you know it was a good weekend. First the Panthers got revenge on their division rivals on Thursday night, and then we saw the Eagles notch their first loss of the season on Monday. Even the Sunday night game was sealed with an interception in the final minute of the game. You have to love prime time!
Prime time games are in prime time for a reason. Expect close games where the unexpected can happen. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid this week’s marquee games:
- Tennessee Titans @ Green Bay Packers
- Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers
- San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage
In a very rare situation, there were only two games last weekend where the away team was favorited over the home team. One was Atlanta playing in Carolina, the other was Dallas playing in Green Bay. The crazy part is both home teams won! Maybe home field advantage is ready to make a comeback?
While home-field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still real and something you should be careful with. Be aware of this week’s games where the favorite is the away team:
- Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings
- Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers
- Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
- San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Step 4 – Make your pick!
My pick of the week is:
- Buffalo Bills over the Cleveland Browns
After the Bills lost a heartbreaker last week in historic fashion, I fully expect them to take their frustrations out on a Browns team that looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL last week. The Bills will take it as a personal challenge to show they can score more points against this team than their division rival did the previous Sunday.
Other options I like this week:
- Baltimore Ravens over the Carolina Panthers
While the Panthers are coming off a big division win last Thursday, Baker Mayfield is back in the driver’s seat and this Ravens defense knows him very well from his Cleveland days. This one could end in a bloodbath with multiple turnovers going Baltimore’s way.
- New York Giants over the Detroit Lions
The Lions picked up their first win away from Detroit this past weekend, even if their margin of victory was only a single point. This pick is less about New York and more about my doubts about the Lions picking up two victories in a row away from the comforts of home.
Last Week’s Record = 3-0
Season Record = 20-9
Follow me on Twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!
Thanks for reading!
