This week represents the final “normal” week of the college football season and in turn my last post. Thank you to everyone that has been reading this season! I appreciate the support. As for last week’s approach, the Tyler Lavine speculation worked out pretty well. Anytime you can get a 3k range player at his position that goes for 100 plus yards and a score that’s a significant win.
On the flip side, Notre Dame did all their damage through the air rendering Logan Diggs somewhat useless. And, Xavier Weaver’s 4-60-1 line didn’t hurt anyone but was slightly disappointing considering their matchup with SMU during the day.
At night, the Aggies’ value stack approach was a total flop, and I still haven’t forgiven myself for aligning my lineups with a Jimbo Fisher offense. Everyone else mentioned was relatively productive for their price, but no one popped off like UNC’s Antoine Green from Week 9’s contest. Regardless, let’s finish strong this week before the overeating season begins!
As always, the purpose of every post I make here is to attempt to identify value for any particular slate. I will never offer the most expensive, obvious, and essentially best players as my “suggestions” or “picks” for a slate. I’m trying to point out options that could help you afford those players and/or options that I believe could provide similar results at a cheaper price based on logic and statistical evidence. That said, let’s talk about some of my favorite plays for the Week 12 Saturday slates!
Nakia Watson | RB | Washington St. $3,800
It’s pretty rare to find pricing errors this late in the season, but this is definitely one of them and should be strongly considered for one of your running back slots Saturday afternoon. The junior has been the unquestioned lead runner in the Cougar backfield all season and will be playing in one of the best DFS-friendly games for the slate at Arizona, which allows well over 200 rush yards per game in 2022. I could offer stats to support this play, but it’s just common sense. If Watson stays healthy and gets his regular workload, it’s as close to a sure thing that he’ll return value as you’ll find because of the price tag. Set it and forget it. You’re welcome!
Stacy Sneed | RB | Houston $3,800
In the other game that will likely be a primary target of anyone setting a lineup, this freshman tailback is also coming into the slate priced below where his fair market value is at this point in the year. Over the last four games for Houston, he’s by far been their most effective running back averaging eight yards per touch to go along with four rushing scores. He’s beyond “trending in the right direction”, or a “sneaky speculative play”. He’s locked into a 10-15 touch role in an extremely high-scoring offense with a great matchup against East Carolina. Anyone with that resume should be 5k minimum. Take advantage of these running back value plays Saturday afternoon. You won’t be sorry.
Starting out by building lineups with both of these players at the RB slots and ECU quarterback Holton Ahlers as your QB leaves with a smooth $7,240 remaining per the five remaining roster slots. Just sayin….
Austin Jones | RB | USC $5,400
Now that you know my plan for glory in the day contest, let me offer another core group as a foundation for the smaller night slate. With Travis Dye out for the season with an injury, this former Stanford bell cow will likely be set for the same role as the Trojans feature RB1 in their scintillating matchup with UCLA Saturday evening. Considering that Jones has every box checked on paper for an outstanding fantasy performance, he is my top price/floor/ceiling combination at any position on the board.
For similar reasons at a similar price, LSU’s Josh Williams appears to have a strong hold as RB1 in the Tiger offense. He is in a great spot to stay productive in a soft matchup against Conference USA opponent UAB (5-5), who has legit been smoked on the ground against much worse competition. Their recent losses to Western Kentucky and UT San Antonio serve as prime examples.
Giles Jackson | WR | Washington $3,000
Huskie pass catchers Giles Jackson and Devin Culp offer low, yet very stable floors where they should be safe for 1-2 catches in a super soft matchup where maybe they can get lucky and end up being one of 5-6 offensive scores against hapless Colorado. Frankly, I do not like the upside on paper of hardly any mid-range (4-5.6k) wideout in this slate. I’ll use one of these Huskies for some cap relief allowing me to roster more high-ceiling players from matchups like the USC/UCLA game. With the two aforementioned RBs and Jackson, you’d be left with $7,300 remaining per player to use.
Good luck in Week 12! Follow me on Twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always appreciated.