For Frequency Sake Gambling NFL Eliminator Challenge – WEEK 10

NFL Eliminator Challenge – WEEK 10

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Welcome to Week 10, Season 10, of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series! For those of you who are new to our series, we follow four simple steps to make our picks. While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past. We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to hit me up on Twitter to give me your thoughts!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

We may have had only three division games last weekend, but boy did they not disappoint.  Down in Arizona, the Cardinals were favored by two points but ended up losing by 10 to their division rival from Seattle. Up in Detroit, the Packers were favored by four points over the Lions and lost by six. Then finally, the upset of the week in New York (or New Jersey if we want to be technical), the Bills were favored by more than 10 points and lost to the Jets by a field goal. Three division games, three upsets.  Avoid, avoid, avoid!

Every single year one of the top teams gets upset by an underdog division rival. The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen.  Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding this week’s division matchups:

  • Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
  • Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
  • Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams
  • Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

While only one prime-time game was close in Week 9, it was a great one. The Titans and Chiefs went back and forth requiring overtime before a winner could be named. Each week one of these games is a great one, but sometimes it is hard to predict which one.

Prime time games are in prime time for a reason.  Expect close games where the unexpected can happen. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid this week’s marquee games:

  • Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
  • Los Angeles Chargers @ San Francisco 49ers
  • Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

Home-field advantage wasn’t prevalent throughout Week 9, but let’s not forget some of the major upsets by Detroit and the Jets and some epic come-from-behind victories in Tampa and Jacksonville. While home-field advantage isn’t a slam dunk, it’s not something we can ignore either.

While home-field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with.  Be aware of this week’s games where the favorite is the away team:

  • Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
  • Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

  • Kansas City Chiefs over the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Chiefs are on a hot streak and with the Bills losing last week, they can see an opportunity to gain control of the AFC. I don’t see the Jaguars standing in their way of their quest for the AFC #1 seed this coming Sunday.

 Other options I like this week:

  • New York Giants over the Houston Texans

The Giants are one of the hottest teams in the NFC right now and coming off a bye week they host a Texans team that can’t even get their top receiver to show up to practice. This shouldn’t be a close one and the Giants should continue their surprising run this Sunday.

  • Miami Dolphins over the Cleveland Browns

The Dolphins have been one of the hottest teams in the NFL since Tua came back, and while the Browns are coming off a big division win and a bye week, I think the Dolphins’ offense will be too much to handle for a Browns team still waiting for their star QB to come back from suspension.

Last Week’s Record = 3-0

Season Record = 17-9

Follow me on Twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

Thanks for reading!

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