Jacksonville fumbles on 3rd down inside the 10 yard line. Then Houston, rather than punting goes for it on 4th down and extends their lead with a Hail Mary-type throw to Randall Cobb to put the game out of reach and not allow Gardner Minshew to get the back door cover like I had planned on. And Philip Rivers is officially old and should retire (Drew Brees is also in that club). That is the story of my 1-2 week last week. I now sit at 8-7 on the season. Still above .500 but not far from it! Let’s hope I can see better into Week 6.
LOCK PICK OF THE WEEK
Miami Dolphins (-9.5) vs New York Jets
I won’t spend much time on the Jets. Easily the worst team in the league. Clearly tanking for Trevor (Lawrence) and they just cut their best offensive player. They are hurting on defense and their longest play since Week 1 is a QB run for about 50 yards.
Miami on the other hand is not bad. They lost to the Bills, Patriots, and Seahawks. They beat the Jags easily, and then manhandled the beat up 49ers last week. They have been in every game they have played this season and they are not even playing Tua Tagoviloa yet. The Jets will be their easiest opponent yet and they are playing in Miami. The best thing that could happen to the Jets is to find out someone on their team has Covid so they don’t have to play the Dolphins this week.
Only things that worry me are the (1) this is a division game, and (2) this is a let down spot for Miami after a big win in San Francisco last week. They also have the Rams the following week.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
Buffalo Bills (-3) vs Kansas City Chiefs
Bills got embarrassed on Tuesday night versus Tennessee. They are a lot better than how they played, and I think they will come right back and punch KC in the mouth. I think that Los Angeles showed us something when they stymied Patrick Mahomes earlier this year as KC eeked out a win. Las Vegas took a page out of that book and pressured Mahomes a lot less than anyone else this season. They covered the receivers and eventually, they got to the backfield before Mahomes could find someone to throw to. That appears to be the recipe for success. Mahomes thrives under pressure but does not know what to do when everyone is covered. If his receiving options don’t help him out more, it might be a long season for the Chiefs.
Buffalo has a better defense that Kansas City and is comparable in offensive explosiveness with the WR core. Travis Kelce is a difference maker that Buffalo is lacking at TE, but if Buffalo focuses on the run and plays zone with the KC spread, I think Buffalo will end up getting more opportunities in the red zone and ultimately winning the game, or at least keeping it within the three-point spread.
GAME OF THE WEEK
Green Bay Packers (-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Green Bay has scored 30 points in all four of its games. They have done it with a different receiving core each week. The one constant is Aaron Rodgers. The guy knows what to do in every situation. He has an All-Pro back in Aaron Jones to help him out as well. They are prone to shootouts, as their defense is solid, but should be better than giving up almost 25 points per game.
Tampa Bay will be looking to rebound from a horrible game against Chicago. They almost won it, but penalties killed the Bucs. I think it will be much of the same in this game. The referees are starting to call holding penalties and I think Tampa Bay will kill themselves again and ultimately lose the game by a touchdown or more. If they were disciplined and able to avoid penalties, I think this game would go down to the wire but after watching them last week and seeing that the penalties were up from the previous four weeks, I like Green Bay.