NFL DFS Week 6 licks and #SleeperValue picks

October 17, 2020

**GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY – THIS IS FANTASY FOOTBALL, BUT IF YOU’RE SPENDING MONEY IT’S GAMBLING**

(For new players, I recommend low money games with a smaller number of users. This increases your win percentage while you learn how you like to build lineups)

**All prices listed are for Draftkings**

Week 6 Top Dollar picks

QB

  • Kyler Murray vs DAL: $7300 – Murray became the first QB to have 5 passing & 5 rushing TDs through his first 5 games. The Cowboys defense gives up an average of 24 ppg to QBs, including 250 pass yards and 2+ TDs per game. Kyler has rushed for a score in 4/5 games this season and topped 67 yards 3/5 games. There is no doubt that the Cowboys will put up points, despite losing their star QB Dak Prescott as Andy Dalton knows how to sling it. This should be an entertaining offensive showdown & Kyler will put on a show with his arm and legs.

RB

  • Aaron Jones vs TB: $7600 – Jones has been one of the most reliable RB options so far, scoring 16+ fantasy points in every game this year. This game will feature two of the greatest QBs of all time and two of the most high powered offenses currently in the NFL. With Davante Adams back healthy and Robert Tonyan drawing some attention – Jones should have a very safe floor again on Sunday.

WR

  • Adam Thielen vs ATL: $7300  I was big on the Vikings air attack last week vs. Seattle and I’m probably a bigger fan this week vs. Atlanta. The Falcons’ secondary has been leaking like a sieve in 2020 which should result in big days from both Thielen & Justin Jefferson (and in theory Kirk Cousins). Adam has 3 games of 25+ fantasy points this year and this impending shootout could produce his fourth.
    • Week 1: 6/110/2 (8 targets)
    • Week 2: 3/31/0 (8)
    • Week 3: 3/29/1 (5)
    • Week 4: 8/114/1 (10)
    • Week 5: 9/80/2 (13)
  • AJ Brown vs HOU: $5600 AJ Brown proved in his return from injury Week 5 that he is well-rested, hauling in 7/82/1 on 9 targets. Brown is one of the best young WRs in the league and makes explosive plays on nearly a weekly basis.
    • Brown has embarrassed the Texans in 2 career starts – totaling 12/238/2 on 21 targets.
      • 2019: Week 15 – 8/114/1 (13 targets)
      • 2019: Week 17 – 4/124/1 (8)
    • Houston appears to be more competent on offense after one week without Bill O’Brien (shocked face), so they should force the Titans to pass the ball at a normal rate, but I’m sure Derek Henry will have a day as well.

Julian Edelman vs DEN: $5600 – Despite his two latest performances, Edelman is graded as the T-31st WR by PFF with a 71.9 grade and is currently ranked T-17th in the NFL with 31 targets – 25.41% of team target share – incl. 5 of 14 team RZ targets. Assuming Cam Newton is back in the starting role after the Covid mishap, Edelman’s stock should return to solid WR3 volume/value.

Edelman has played 75 percent of his snaps from the slot this season, which matches him up with Denver Slot CB Essang Bassey. Bassey is graded a 45.7 by PFF in 2020, and he has allowed catches on 86 percent of passes he is targeted on – feed Julian Edelman!!!

Also, Edelman has now had a few weeks to rest his ailing knee and should be closer to 100 percent.

TE

  • George Kittle vs LAR: $6800  George Kittle is the straw that stirs the drink in SF and there is no doubt he will be a feature part of their gameplan against their division rival Rams. When Kittle returned in Week 4, he put up 15/183/1 – catching all 15 of his targets. I see him in the 10-12 target range again this week.
    • George has made a habit of SHREDDING the Rams defense in his career so anytime he draws this matchup I see $$$
      • Gamelog vs Rams
      • 2019
        • Week 5: 8/103/0 (8 targets)
        • Week 16: 5/79/1 (8)
      • 2018
        • Week 7: 5/98/1 (8)
        • Week 17: 9/149/1 (14)
      • 2017
        • Week 17: 4/100/0 (6)

HONORABLE MENTION: MIA ($5400), Justin Jefferson – MIN ($6000), Jonnu Smith – TEN ($5200)

Week 6 #SleeperValue Picks

QB

  • Ryan Tannehill vs HOU: $5900 – We should call Ryan Tannehill Rodney Dangerfield, cuz he don’t get no respect! Tannehill has only played 4 games this season and has eclipsed 25+ points twice and thrown 2+ TDs in 3/4 games. Plus, he should add a few points on the ground this week.
    • If you think what I said about AJ Brown above is good advice, you may want to stack him with Tannehill and even Jonnu Smith (only $5200).
    • The Texans defense has yet to INT a pass and has allowed a QB rating of 108.8 this season – 20.8 fppg to QB’s.

RB

  • D’Andre Swift vs JAX:  $4500 – Swift seems to have taken over the role of pass-catching RB in the Lions backfield, ceding rushing attempts to the ageless Adrian Peterson, and they have both been surprisingly productive through 4 weeks. As the season progresses, I have to think they will add more to Swift’s plate.
    • Fantasy points/week
      • Week 1: 11.3
      • Week 2: 12.2
      • Week 3: 2.9
      • Week 4: 15.2

WR

  • Laviska Shenault Jr. vs DET: $5200 Shenault was upgraded to a limited session in Thursday’s practice – indicating that he’s trending in the right direction for Sunday’s game. This is something he’s dealt with the last two weeks and seems to be able to play through. Noting this and the added prospect that DJ Chark is looking less likely to play (although had a limited practice on Friday and shouldn’t be 100%), I’m jamming Shenault into most of my lineups.
    • Snap Count by week (team rank):
      • Week 1: 31 (3rd)
      • Week 2: 43 (3rd)
      • Week 3: 45 (3rd)
      • Week 4: 37 (3rd)
      • Week 5: 52 (2nd)
    • Chark exited Week 5 and Shenault drew a career-high 8 targets and 7 catches, converting that into 79 yards. 
    • Worth noting that Keelan Cole has played more snaps in every game and found the endzone 3 times. But as you’ll see below, I predict JAX will try to get Laviska more involved each week – continuing this Sunday against a weak Detroit defense.
    • Targets by week (production)
      • Week 1: 4 (3/37/1), 2 carries for 10 yards
      • Week 2: 4 (3/35/0), 5 carries for 37 yards
      • Week 3: 6 (5/33), 1 carry for 1 yard
      • Week 4: 6 (5/86/0), 1 carry for 5 yards
      • Week 5: 8 (7/79/0)
    • Tendencies point to Shenault as a player they want to feature, and if Chark sits (Questionable), Shenault is an outstanding play (still a good play if Chark is active)!

TE

  • Tre Burton: $3100 – Don’t look at me like that! I’m not proud of this either. But.. the fact is, the Colts are beat-up on offense and he has seen the most targets by a Colts TE the last two weeks and Mo Alie-Cox has already been ruled out. This isn’t going to be a giant game but could allow you to stack RBs/WRs (or George Kittle at FLEX 👀👀).
    • Week 4: 2/16/0 (5 targets)
    • Week 5: 5/33/0 (6 targets)

HONORABLE MENTION: Myles Gaskin – MIA ($5400), Marvin Jones Jr – DET ($5100), Irv Smith Jr – ($2500)