Welcome to the eleventh season of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series. For those of you who are new to our little group, we follow four simple steps to make our picks. While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past. We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter to give me your thoughts!
Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups
Welcome to the final week of the regular season, where every game is a division game and step one doesn’t matter!
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups
While step one is non-existent for the final week, step two also loses some luster this weekend. With no more Thursday night games and no more Monday night games, our selection of prime time games leaves much to be desired.
For whatever reason, when primetime hits, some teams rise to the occasion while others shrink in the bright lights. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:
- Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
- Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage
Somehow we only had two games last week where the away team was the favorite: the 49ers and the Rams. While both teams were victorious, the Rams only won by a single point and that’s only because the giants choose to go for two instead of settling for a tie game late in the fourth quarter. So much for a 6.5point spread favoring the visiting Rams.
While home field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with. While this is one of our softer rules, I’m not ready to give up on it yet. Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:
- Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
- Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
- Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
- Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
- Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
Step 4 – Make your pick!
My pick of the week is:
- Green Bay Packers over the Chicago Bears
Despite their records only being different by a single victory, one of these teams has everything to play for, and the other team has nothing to play for. With the game taking place in Green Bay, and the Packers having all the momentum, I think the Bears will be too focused on who to take with their first overall pick instead of focusing on this game to play spoilers.
Other options I like this week:
- Cincinnati Bengals over the Cleveland Browns
The Browns have the 5 seed locked up no matter what happens on Sunday. I expect them to rest most of their starters and an angry Bengals team is going to play hard in this final game of the season to get some momentum they can run into next year.
- New England Patriots over the New York Jets
This is purely speculation that if this is truly Belichicks last game in New England, there is next to no chance he ends his tenure losing to the Jets at home. Just a hunch.
Last Week’s Record = 2-1
Season Record = 39-12
Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!
Thanks for reading!
