For Frequency Sake Fantasy Football,Gambling NFL Eliminator Challenge – WEEK 14

NFL Eliminator Challenge – WEEK 14

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Welcome to the eleventh season of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series.  For those of you who are new to our little group, we follow four simple steps to make our picks.  While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past.  We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter to give me your thoughts!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

With only two division games last week, we didn’t have too much to worry about, but if you didn’t avoid these like I recommended, you had a wild ride on Sunday.  The first of the two was the only Sunday game that went to overtime being decided by only a field goal, then the second game in the afternoon was similarly decided by only three points with a last minute interception putting the game to bed.  These games only seem to get closer as the season winds down.

Every year one of the top teams gets upset by a division rival.  The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen.  Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding these division matchups:

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
  • Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
  • Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
  • Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
  • Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
  • Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

It finally happened!  We finally had a Thursday night game that was not only watchable, but actually exciting.  The Seahawks and Cowboys combined for 76 total points as Dallas barely squeaked by with a six point home victory.  In fact, all three primetime games were decided by eight or less points with the biggest upset coming on Monday night where the Bengals minus Joe Burrow somehow beat the Jaguars in Jacksonville by a field goal in overtime, just slightly overshadowing the Packers upset of their own over Kansas City on Sunday night.  Three wild games I hope you avoided!

For whatever reason, when primetime hits, some teams rise to the occasion while others shrink in the bright lights. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:

  • New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
  • Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins
  • Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

With all six away teams favored between the 1pm and 4pm est games on Sunday coming out victorious, we were moments away from declaring home field advantage dead, and then Sunday night happened.  The 8-3 Kansas City Chiefs headed to Green Bay with their destiny in their hands.  Winning out the season almost certainly guaranteed them a bye week and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  With the Packers at only 5-6, the Chiefs were favored by almost a touchdown despite being the away team and everyone was picking them outright.  Lambeau Field however had other plans as the home team Packers came out with a very impressive win over the defending super bowl champions.

While home field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with.  While this is one of our softer rules, I’m not ready to give up on it yet.  Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:

  • Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
  • Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals
  • Houston Texans @ New York Jets
  • Minnesota Vikings @ Las Vegas Raiders

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

  • Baltimore Ravens over the Los Angeles Rams

While the Rams might be on a bit of a hot streak, the Ravens are possibly the best team in the AFC right now and are coming fresh off their late season bye week.  With this game happening in Baltimore, it could be a bloodbath.

 

Other options I like this week:

  • Cincinnati Bengals over the Indianapolis Colts

This late in the season it is hard to find many great options as most of the major favored teams have already been used.  While the Bengals aren’t even favored in this game, they are playing at home, and their backup QB was more than serviceable against the Jags.  My theory here is if this Bengals team can beat the Jags in Jacksonville, they should be able to beat the Colts in Cincinnati.

  • New Orleans Saints over the Carolina Panthers

While I hate that this is a division game, with the pickings slim, and when all else fails, just pick against the Panthers.

Last Week’s Record = 2-1

Season Record = 29-10

Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

Thanks for reading!

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