Welcome to the eleventh season of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series. For those of you who are new to our little group, we follow four simple steps to make our picks. While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past. We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter to give me your thoughts!
Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups
Last weekend we only had two division matchups, so there was no way something crazy was going to happen, right? Let’s not ignore the fact that the Jets were a dropped hail mary away from beating the Patriots, but how about the Houston Texans. 0-2, traveling down to Jacksonville to play a Jaguars team favored by more than a touchdown and picked by many to easily win the AFC South. Fast forward to the end of the game, and not only did the Texans win, but they put up 37 points on the road to beat a division rival by 20. All while ending many espn eliminator seasons across the country. This is step number one for a reason and one we always take very seriously.
Every year one of the top teams gets upset by a division rival. The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen. Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding these division matchups:
- Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
- Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
- Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
- Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
- Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers
- Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups
While Thursday wasn’t exactly the most exciting prime time matchup, we did get a couple good ones the rest of the week. Sunday night we saw Pittsburgh go on the road in a game with a margin of only eight points with a little over two minutes left before the Raiders inexplicably kicked a field goal. Then on Monday night we saw a back and forth matchup in LA where the Bengals narrowly squeaked out a victory by just a field goal. While there were no major upsets this week, that doesn’t mean there won’t be any next week!
For whatever reason, when primetime hits, some teams rise to the occasion while others shrink in the bright lights. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:
- Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
- Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets
- Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage
Home field advantage is back! Not to get ahead of ourselves as plenty of teams crashed and burned in front of their home crowd last week, we did have one massive upset. The Dallas Cowboys were favored by 11 points traveling to the desert this past weekend. The Cardinals were pegged by many to be the worst team in the league, on a path for the #1 overall pick in next years draft. However, the Cardinals came to play and defended their home field advantage. Not only did they upset the Cowboys, a team many had already placed in the NFC championship game, but they beat them handedly, up 21-10 at halftime and finishing with a margin of victory of 12 points. This is why we always try to lean toward the home teams where possible.
While home field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with. While this is one of our softer rules, I’m not ready to give up on it yet. Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:
- Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
- Denver Broncos @ Chicago Bears
- Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans
- Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers
- Pittsburgh Steelers @ Houston Texans
- Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets
Step 4 – Make your pick!
My pick of the week is:
- Dallas Cowboys over the New England Patriots
After we narrow down our options in steps 1-3, we are left with only three options: the Cowboys over the Patriots, the Colts over the Rams, and the Jags over the Falcons. With the Jags game being played over seas and the Colts having uncertainty at quarterback, this was the logical choice. Yes, the Cowboys got embarrassed last week against an inferior opponent, but they were also on the road and out of their environment. Now they return home and while the Patriots still have a great defense and one of the best coaches of all time, I don’t think they have the offensive firepower to keep up with a Cowboys team looking to get back on track.
Other options I like this week:
- San Francisco 49ers over the Arizona Cardinals
Since we are out of other options, we need to go with some rule breakers this week. While the 49ers game is a division matchup which I hate, the game is at home for the 49ers and I just don’t see Arizona winning two upsets in a row.
- Kansas City Chiefs over the New York Jets
Here we have the infamous double rule breaker, the Chiefs being on the road and playing in prime time. Rules aside though, who are you betting on to perform better in prime time, Mahomes or Zach Wilson? Enough said.
Last Week’s Record = 2-1
Season Record = 6-3
Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!
Thanks for reading!
