For Frequency Sake Fantasy Football,Gambling NFL Eliminator Challenge – WEEK 13

NFL Eliminator Challenge – WEEK 13

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Welcome to the eleventh season of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series.  For those of you who are new to our little group, we follow four simple steps to make our picks.  While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past.  We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter to give me your thoughts!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

With a whopping ten divisions matchups last week there were bound to be massive upsets across the board but that was shockingly not the case.  The Packers pulled off an impressive Thanksgiving win over the Lions and the Bears pulled an upset of their own over the Vikings, but outside of that most of the favored teams took care of business against their division rivals this past week.  Call it a bit of Thanksgiving luck.

Every year one of the top teams gets upset by a division rival.  The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen.  Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding these division matchups:

  • Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
  • Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

On top of ten division matchups, last week provided us with an incredible six prime time games.  Unfortunately, they weren’t exactly incredible to watch.  While we got off to a strong start with the Packers upsetting the Lions in Detroit in our first Thanksgiving game, that was followed by Dallas easily handling Washington and the 49ers easily taking care of Seattle.  Even our first Black Friday game was a blowout.  You could argue the Monday night game was the best game of the prime time slate, a two point upset victory for Chicago, but anyone watching that snoozefest would not use the word exciting to describe much of the game.

For whatever reason, when primetime hits, some teams rise to the occasion while others shrink in the bright lights. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:

  • Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys
  • Kansas City Chiefs @ Green Bay Packers
  • Cincinnati Bengals @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

As if ten division matchups and six prime time games weren’t enough, we were also provided with nine games where the away team was favored over the home team.  Yet again, nothing to see here as the only “upset” was the Giants beating the Patriots and I truly wouldn’t call that much of an upset.  Another week making us question the validity of home field advantage.

While home field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with.  While this is one of our softer rules, I’m not ready to give up on it yet.  Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:

  • Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
  • Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots
  • Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints
  • Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets
  • Miami Dolphins @ Washington Commanders
  • San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles
  • Kansas City Chiefs @ Green Bay Packers

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

  • Pittsburgh Steelers over the Arizona Cardinals

After winning a tough division matchup last week, the Steelers are rewarded this week by hosting one of the worst teams in the league.  Unless Kyler Murray shows up on fire for this one, the Steelers should keep their improbable winning season going.

 

Other options I like this week:

  • Los Angeles Rams over the Cleveland Browns

First the Browns lose their star running back.  Then their highly paid quarterback.  Now their best defensive player is hurt.  I’m just not sure the Browns have enough players available to compete in this one on top of having to travel all the way to LA for the game.  While it shouldn’t be a blowout, I’m not sure the Cleveland offense can score enough to stay competitive here.

  • Los Angeles Chargers over the New England Patriots

While this game is in New England, the Patriots are shaping up to be one of the worst teams in the NFL while the Chargers are due for a win at some point.  The talent in this game is so lopsided I’m not sure the location even matters.

Last Week’s Record = 3-0

Season Record = 27-9

Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

Thanks for reading!

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