Welcome to the eleventh season of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series. For those of you who are new to our little group, we follow four simple steps to make our picks. While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past. We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter to give me your thoughts!
Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups
Welcome to week two of why we shouldn’t pick division games. Out of the six division games last week, only one was decided by more than seven points. In fact, we had two games decided by seven, one game decided by four, and two more decided by only a field goal. These games continue to be close and are not something I would risk my season on.
Every year one of the top teams gets upset by a division rival. The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen. Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding these division matchups:
- New England Patriots @ New York Jets
- Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups
Five points. Out of the four prime time games last weekend, the average margin of victory was only five points. We had one game decided by seven, one game decided by six, one game decided by four, and one game that came down to a field goal. Similar to our division matchups, these continue to be closer than they should, and I would hate you to lose everything on a last second upset.
For whatever reason, when primetime hits, some teams rise to the occasion while others shrink in the bright lights. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:
- New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers
- Pittsburgh Steelers @ Las Vegas Raiders
- Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Los Angeles Rams @ Cincinnati Bengals
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage
Six teams. For the second week in a row, only six home teams won out of 16 in week two. An astonishing, and embarrassing, 37.5% win rate on the season! While steps one and two are holding strong, if this trend keeps up, we may need to find a new step three this season.
While home field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with. While this is one of our softer rules, I’m not ready to give up on it yet. Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:
- New England Patriots @ New York Jets
- Buffalo Bills @ Washington Commanders
- Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals
- Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Step 4 – Make your pick!
My pick of the week is:
- Kansas City Chiefs over the Chicago Bears
Some may say it’s early in the season to “waste” the Chiefs as the pick of the week, but at the same time I’ve seen way too many eliminator seasons end early because you were trying to save top teams for later in the year. At a Vegas spread of almost 13pts as of Wednesday morning, this is one of the safest picks on the book. With Kelce one week healthier and the Bears offense currently struggling, I’m with Vegas on this one.
Other options I like this week:
- Baltimore Ravens over the Indianapolis Colts
Last week the Colts lost their up and coming quarterback and was the only division matchup where one team was beaten by more than a single score. If Richardson can’t go this week I expect the Ravens to take apart the Colts in front of the Baltimore faithful.
- Seattle Seahawks over the Carolina Panthers
Last week we made the mistake of picking against the Seahawks traveling to Detroit. This week we are rectifying that mistake and going with the fact that the Panthers rookie quarterback looks lost and the Panthers just don’t have the offensive weapons to keep pace with a Seahawks team that looked to hit their stride last week.
Last Week’s Record = 2-1
Season Record = 4-2
Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!
Thanks for reading!
