Football season continues to fly by as we enter Halloween weekend to end October! I am coming off another relatively successful Week 8 performance with some rock solid mid range running back selections. The LSU running back situation also played out just about the exact way I speculated it would. And, pumping the brakes on Baylor’s Gavin Holmes in the day contest turned out to be the appropriate approach after his career performance the previous week.
For the night slate, UCF turned out to be a disappointment and complete miss from yours truly. On the flip side, East Carolina did their part. But it was C.J. Johnson at receiver that blew up instead of Isaiah Winstead for the Pirates. Although, Winstead’s 7-89 line was still useful as long as you hit elsewhere from lower priced selections.
Speaking of those, a couple of contest minimum priced candidates I threw out there were just what the CFB DFS doctor ordered. TCU tight end Jared Wiley has his best game of the season notching a 5-74-1 line, while Texas A&M freshman Donovan Green chipped in with a modest 4-38 night, providing plenty of return on the 3k price tag. We may be requiring the services of Green again in Week 9, but you’ll have to keep reading to find out my hot take on the Saturday night slate. So, let’s get to it!
As always, the purpose of every post I make here is to attempt to identify value for any particular slate. I am never going to offer the most expensive, obvious, and essentially best players as my “suggestions” or “picks” for a slate. I’m trying to point out options that could help you afford those players and/or options that I believe could provide similar results at a cheaper price based on logic and statistical evidence. That said, let’s talk about some of my favorite plays for the Week 9 Saturday slates!
Mavin Anderson | WR | California $3,500
Freshmen always come in handy in the CFB DFS game. They typically fly under the radar long enough that their prices tend to adjust a few weeks late to the corresponding numbers that they are producing. In the case of this 4-star receiver, his immediate impact so far in 2022 should definitely have him somewhere in the 4k price range.
His 9 catches for 114 yards over the last two games both rank second on the team. He’s also recorded at least two catches in 5 of Cal’s 7 games this season so a multiple catch floor is more than likely in a matchup where there should be plenty of game script for passing as substantial underdogs against Oregon. If you’re looking for a cheap building block piece with decent upside, Anderson fits the profile Saturday afternoon.
Another consideration for this would be Dimitri Stanley for Iowa State. The Cyclones have desperately needed a secondary option to wideout Xavier Hutchinson in the passing game for quarterback Hunter Dekkers. In recent weeks, Stanley has helped step up to fill that void. Just like Anderson, this veteran Colorado transfer looks safe for multiple catches with a track record that proves he’s capable of more. Both are great options to help your salary cap in the afternoon contest.
Mid Range Value
There are several middling plays this week at each position that are capable of punching above their weight class with the big dogs. I feel like this entire post doubles as a weekly PSA for Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer at tight end. Why he isn’t priced at least where Brock Bowers is at makes no sense. He’s been somewhat of a plug and play for me all season and it’s paid off more than it hasn’t.
At the running back position, TCU’s Kendre Miller is arguably the best price/floor/ceiling combo meal in the slate across all positions. He checks all the boxes on paper and is coming off a season high 33.1 DK points in a win over Kansas State. He’s in a great spot to continue his outstanding season in this week’s matchup with West Virginia where the over/under is sitting around 70 points.
I’ve also discussed Cincinnati’s Charles McClelland numerous times this season. He continues to lead the Bearcats backfield each week, routinely breaking big plays and producing solid numbers. A matchup at UCF should assist him in keeping that positive trend going.
For quarterbacks, Syracuse’s Garrett Shrader at a sub 6k price is a strong play if you are trying to cut budget at this position. His rushing stats usually keep his floors relatively stable while offering considerable upside. The other QB that really jumps out is Arkansas Razorback, K.J. Jefferson, in a matchup at Auburn with a Vegas projection of a back-and-forth shootout. His $6,300 price tag is an error given that he averages 30 DK points per game on the season. That of which is equal to, or better than the likes of C.J. Stroud, Malik Cunningham, Stetson Bennett, Max Duggan, and Sam Hartman, all whom cost roughly 2k more than Jefferson.
There are others that may pop from this range that I’ve failed to mention. The important thing to note is that at this point in the season, egregious price errors and/or delayed market adjustments on player prices are more difficult to find. Depth charts and offensive pecking orders are mostly established, as are the associated fair market values. For this reason, it’s critical to identify mid range targets that have the right circumstances on paper that provide the ceilings to compete with top players at their respective positions for the slate. Hopefully, I’ve done just that with some suggestions above.
For the evening contest my approach will be short and sweet. You are under no obligation to follow all of this, but taking just part of it into consideration will allow you to afford going in just about any direction your CFB DFS heart desires.
So, say you’d like to roster each stud running back above in uber soft matchups. But, how can you afford all that and fill out a well rounded, productive roster at each position? No matter who you want to roster in the night contest, consider one, or all of, Antoine Green, Donovan Green, and/or Jared Brown at wide receiver as foundational pieces in your lineups.
In his first full season for Coastal Carolina, Brown comes into Week 9 on an absolute tear over his last four games, averaging a 5-110 line with five scores.
For the Green boys, after missing the first few games this season, Antoine has quickly established himself as the Tarheels clear WR2. In four 2022 starts he’s averaged 30 yards per catch, and already ranks second on the team in yards (384) and touchdowns (4). Donovan is the highly recruited freshman tight end for the Aggies that will likely see an increased role now that an already depleted pass catching group lost Chris Marshall due to suspension. He is coming off a season high four catch game in their loss last week to South Carolina.
Whether you want to categorize their prices as errors or delayed market adjustments, all three have current circumstances and past results that should have them priced slightly higher at this point. If you were to start with all three at the receiver position, it’d leave you with a generous $7,780 average remaining per player. Where you go with that I’ll leave to you.
Good luck in Week 9! Follow me on Twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always appreciated.