Happy Week 5 everyone! We kept rolling last week with tons of success in terms of low-cost value targets. Donovan Ollie kept it rolling with another five-catch performance for the Washington St. Cougars. Both sub 4k tight end targets tied with 9 DK points each. The call on the Irish offense was a complete hit no matter which way you played it. And, Bru McCoy turned out to be Hendon Hooker’s top receiver with Cedric Tillman being held out with an injury for Tennessee in their win over Florida, producing a 5-102-1 line. Outside of an in-game injury to Xavier Worthy, I’d call that a….
As always, the purpose of every post I make here is to attempt to identify value for any particular slate. I am never going to offer the most expensive, obvious, and essentially best players as my “suggestions” or “picks” for a slate. I’m trying to point out options that could help you afford those players and/or options that I believe could provide similar results at a cheaper price based on logic and statistical evidence. That said, let’s talk about some of my favorite plays for the Week 5 Saturday slates!
The main idea here is attacking a hapless Michigan St. defense that appears to be broken beyond repair in the short term. Even a guy like Tanner Morgan just lit them up in their own backyard for fuck’s sake! That said, raise the ceiling across the board on all Terrapin position players.
Last week’s mention of tight end Chris Dyches remains a fantastic building block piece in the 3k range. Freshman running back, Roman Hemby, has totaled 20, and 19 touches respectively in Maryland’s last two games. He presents a very nice value play in a great matchup at a position that can be very challenging to find value at past the top dogs.
The status of star wideout Rakim Jarrett would also have major implications on offensive workloads for the rest of Maryland’s pass catchers. As a 3:30 EST kick-off, it’s unlikely we’ll have the clarity we want to act on. But, if you’re willing to roll the dice and speculate, Dontay Demus is my favorite pivot and the sky would be the limit on what kind of damage he could do to this motley crew that the Spartans are running out there in the secondary. Regardless of Jarrett’s status, feel free to plug and play any turtle Saturday afternoon.
Will Levis | QB | Kentucky $6,900
Amongst the many quarterbacks receiving tons of preseason “1st round sleeper” hype, Levis has fit the bill thus far. He has all the raw attributes that are required to be considered as a potential NFL franchise quarterback. For this week’s DFS purposes, he has the price and matchup to be considered my DK quarterback on Saturday. In the most similar matchup to date this season, he managed 15.9 DK points in a dub at Florida. Seeing that Laney’s teams are generally offensive minded trying to outpace their opponents, I believe Levis is plenty safe for that kind of floor with legit upside as the team’s de facto goal line runner. At his price, he is definitely my favorite paydown option (and Baby Tua for obvious reasons) at the quarterback position in the day contest.
Also in that game, Wildcat receiver Tayvion Robinson is a very intriguing sub-6k option at his position. The Virginia Tech transfer has done most of his work against weaker opponents this season but also looks to be the most reliable candidate to fill the massive hole left by now NFLer Wan’Dale Robinson, at the receiver position. Both players feature similar skill sets as YAC machines that will have many plays designed for them to catch the ball in space and go to work. The way that Levis tended to lock onto Wan’Dale a year ago suggests Tayvion could be in line for a big 2022 with some monster games along the way. We probably won’t be seeing the number five next to his name for too long.
Kayshon Boutte | WR | LSU $3,200
Bwahahahhhah! This is comical. Actually, it’s just stupid. I’m guessing the DK pricing algorithm missed the memo when assigning arguably CFB’s top receiver this price for Saturday night’s contest. No further analysis needed.
I also think LSU running back Noah Cain is worth a look at his sub 4k price. The Tigers’ leading rusher so far in 2022, Armoni Goodwin, has already been ruled out leaving Cain as the most likely beneficiary. The Penn State transfer has been equally effective as Goodwin averaging six YPC while scoring four touchdowns this season. It’s not necessarily the ideal game to target for DFS purposes, but the prices on these two can’t be ignored for this slate.
CJ Donaldson | RB | West Virginia $5,000
Incorrectly listed as a wide receiver in the contest (shame on you DK!), you are essentially getting a featured running back (at a WR slot in the contest) with sound pass-catching skills in a projected high-scoring affair with Texas under the lights. As a 3-star, true freshman converted tight end, this Miami native has been the most interesting success story for the Mountaineers this season. Whether he’s listed at running back or receiver, his production so far and projected role in the offense moving forward has him roughly 1k below his fair market value at the moment. Get in on the fun now before that corrects itself.
Good luck in Week 5! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always appreciated.