Welcome to Week 9, Season 10, of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series! For those of you who are new to our series, we follow four simple steps to make our picks. While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past. We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to hit me up on Twitter to give me your thoughts!
Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups
Travel with me back to Atlanta this past weekend and you’ll see why we avoid division matchups. We saw everything from a hail-mary pass, to a crazy penalty, missed kicks, and overtime. This Panthers-Falcons division game had it all. Combine plenty of division matchups decided by seven or fewer points with a Monday night upset, and division matchups didn’t disappoint in week eight.
Every year, one of the top teams gets upset by an underdog division rival. The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen. Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding this week’s division matchups:
- Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
- Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
- Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups
On Thursday our streak grew to four weeks in a row of at least one prime-time game being decided by a touchdown or less. While the Ravens and Buccaneers haven’t been the teams we expected before the season started, they both showed up to put on a show in the bright lights on prime time. Then on Monday night, we saw why this rule exists. There are some teams who just can’t perform in prime time and the Bengals are clearly one of them.
Prime time games are in prime time for a reason. Expect close games where the unexpected can happen. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid this week’s marquee games:
- Philadelphia Eagles @ Houston Texans
- Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs
- Baltimore Ravens @ New Orleans Saints
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage
While we did not see a ton of home-field advantage this past weekend, we did see some. The Saints may have been the biggest surprise, completely blanketing the Raiders in front of the New Orleans faithful. Add that to the Falcons’ home win with the help of some kicker woes on the other side of the field, and there were plenty of home fans who went home happy this past weekend, especially those in Cleveland on Monday night!
While home-field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with. Be aware of this week’s games where the favorite is the away team:
- Philadelphia Eagles @ Houston Texans
- Los Angeles Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons
- Miami Dolphins @ Chicago Bears
- Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
- Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
- Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Commanders
- Las Vegas Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- Baltimore Ravens @ New Orleans Saints
Step 4 – Make your pick!
My pick of the week is:
- Cincinnati Bengals over the Carolina Panthers
While the Panthers have been surprisingly competitive since trading away some of their best players, the reality is their future is aimed at the draft and not the playoffs. The Bengals on the other hand are competing in a tough AFC North and need to win this game to keep pace with the Ravens after a disastrous loss on Monday. I expect Burrow and team to right the ship back home in Cincinnati.
Other options I like this week:
- New England Patriots over the Indianapolis Colts
The Patriots might not have their quarterback situation figured out, but this game is all about the other side of the ball. The Patriots’ defense has an incredible record against rookie quarterbacks and I don’t see how the Patriots’ mastermind coach is going to let Sam Ehlinger beat him, even with a new offensive coordinator after the Colts just fired theirs.
- Kansas City Chiefs over the Tennessee Titans
Rule breaker pick of the week. Yes, some teams don’t know how to show up in prime time. The Chiefs are not one of those teams. While I expect this game to be close, the Chiefs are the better team on paper and should be well-rested for this one.
Last Week’s Record = 3-0
Season Record = 14-9
Follow me on Twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!
Thanks for reading!
