Welcome to Week 4, Season 10, of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series! For those of you who are new to our series, we follow four simple steps to make our picks. While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past. We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to hit me up on Twitter to give me your thoughts!
Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups
Once again we got a sign of why we avoid division matchups last Sunday. Down in Miami, the Dolphins hosted a team many were predicting to play in the Super Bowl at the beginning of the season. Some even predicted the Bills to go undefeated after convincing wins over the Rams and Titans to start the season. However, only one of those teams is undefeated today, and it isn’t the Bills.
Every single year one of the top teams gets upset by an underdog division rival. The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen. Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding this week’s division matchups:
- Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
- Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
- Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders
- Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups
I’m not sure I would call the prime-time games thrilling this past weekend, but if anything they were close. The Monday night game was decided by only seven points and the Sunday night game in Denver was won by a single point. While no massive upsets happened, our streak of close games continued in Week 3.
Prime time games are in prime time for a reason. Expect close games where the unexpected can happen. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid this week’s marquee games:
- Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals
- Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage
How about home-field advantage finally showing up for the 2022 season? No upset was bigger than the Indianapolis Colts hosting the Kansas City Chiefs and holding them to only 17 points. Indy looked dead after week two and came back with a massive win at home. Similarly down in North Carolina, the Panthers who looked like possibly the worst team in the NFL hosted the Saints and held Jameis Winston to only a single score with less than three minutes to go.
While home field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with. Be aware of this week’s games where the favorite is the away team:
- Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints
- Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons
- Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens
- Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans
- Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Step 4 – Make your pick!
My pick of the week is:
- Green Bay Packers over the New England Patriots
The Green Bay Packers are coming off a massive win over the Bucs in Week 3 while the Patriots are coming off a big loss to Baltimore that may have cost them their starting quarterback for the foreseeable future. I’m not sure Brian Hoyer has what it takes to beat the Packers in Green Bay.
Other options I like this week:
- Philadelphia Eagles over the Jacksonville Jaguars
While the Jaguars might be one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, this week they host arguably the hottest. The Eagles are playing great offense mixed with great defense and Jalen Hurts is making his MVP case. While this should be a great game, I expect Philly to come out ahead in front of their home crowd.
- Pittsburgh Steelers over the New York Jets
This pick is less about picking the Steelers and more about picking against the Jets. The Steelers might not be the best right now, but their defense is still top notch and I don’t see Flacco lighting up that secondary. Expect a low-scoring game won in the trenches by the Steelers.
Last Week’s Record = 1-2
Season Record = 5-3
Follow me on Twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!
Thanks for reading!
