Welcome to the eleventh season of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series. For those of you who are new to our little group, we follow four simple steps to make our picks. While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past. We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter to give me your thoughts!
Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups
Last week we finally got a full slate of division matchups, and they certainly didn’t disappoint. While not the most exciting game, the Steelers Browns game came down to a final second field goal, then later in Los Angeles we saw the Rams upset the Seahawks but this time on a missed last second field goal. All that considered, the biggest surprise of the week was watching the Giants not only beat the Commanders, but they beat them convincingly, leading almost the entire game.
Every year one of the top teams gets upset by a division rival. The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen. Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding these division matchups:
- Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
- Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
- San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
- Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
- New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
- Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
- Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
- Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
- Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
- Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups
Last Thursday, an injury plagued AFC North division game made us think that this might be the week we don’t have an exciting prime time game. Think again. First came the Sunday night game where the Broncos beat the Vikings by a single point, scoring the go-ahead touchdown in the final minute of the game. Then on Monday night came the game everyone was waiting for where the Eagles beat the Chiefs by four as the Chiefs just couldn’t come up with a last second miracle of their own. What a week!
For whatever reason, when primetime hits, some teams rise to the occasion while others shrink in the bright lights. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:
- Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
- Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
- San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
- Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
- Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers
- Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage
Last week there were three away teams favored by Vegas over a home team: The Dallas Cowboys, the Los Angeles Chargers and the Seattle Seahawks. When the whistle blew at the end of each game, shockingly only the Dallas Cowboys were victorious. Home field advantage is starting to show up more and more as the season goes on.
While home field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with. While this is one of our softer rules, I’m not ready to give up on it yet. Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:
- San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
- Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
- New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
- Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
- New England Patriots @ New York Giants
- Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
- Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
- Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
- Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers
Step 4 – Make your pick!
My pick of the week is:
- Tennessee Titans over the Carolina Panthers
With ten division matchups, five prime time games, and nine games where the away team is favored by Vegas, our options are incredibly limited this week. This week’s pick is all about trusting our algorithm and that Carolina might be the worst team in football this year.
Other options I like this week:
- Kansas City Chiefs over the Las Vegas Raiders
The Chiefs can’t really lose two games in a row, especially not at the hand of the Las Vegas Raiders, a team that has already fired their head coach before even reaching their bye week, right?…..right?
- Philadelphia Eagles over the Buffalo Bills
A little bit more of a wild card here, but as I said earlier, not a ton of games to choose from. The Eagles look like the best team in the NFL and the Bills have been very up and down this season. I think this will be close, but the game being played in Philly will be the deciding factor.
Last Week’s Record = 2-1
Season Record = 24-9
Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!
Thanks for reading!
