Welcome to the eleventh season of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series. For those of you who are new to our little group, we follow four simple steps to make our picks. While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past. We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter to give me your thoughts!
Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups
With only two division matchups last week, odds were low that we would get a thriller or an upset. Odds were wrong. While the Cowboys game was an absolute blowout, the Ravens game was anything but. Favored by 6.5 points, the Ravens were playing at home facing a browns team that has been very inconsistent this season. Then five minutes into the game it was already 14-0 Ravens and the crowd was smelling a blowout. Fast forward to the end of the game and the Browns took their first (and final) lead with 0:00 remaining on the clock as their kicker drilled a 40 yard field goal to seal the win. What a perfect example of why we never pick these games.
Every year one of the top teams gets upset by a division rival. The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen. Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding these division matchups:
- Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
- Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
- Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
- New York Giants @ Washington Commanders
- Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
- Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups
Boy, do I love prime time. While the games might not always be this exciting, this past weekend was a good one. All three games ended with an average margin of victory of only three points and the weekend culminated with the Broncos beating the Bills who were favored by 7.5 points in Buffalo on a last second field goal by the Broncos kicker (even if it took him two tries). What a week!
For whatever reason, when primetime hits, some teams rise to the occasion while others shrink in the bright lights. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:
- Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
- Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos
- Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage
While there weren’t a ton of home upsets in week ten, we did see a surprising one in the desert. Kyler Murray, in his first game of the season, led the 1-7 Cardinals to only their second win of the season, driving them down the field to kick a field goal with no time remaining (sensing a trend here yet)? While not a major upset, with the Falcons favored by less than a field goal, it does show that home field advantage is not dead yet!
While home field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with. While this is one of our softer rules, I’m not ready to give up on it yet. Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:
- Los Angeles Chargers @ Green Bay Packers
- Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers
- Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams
Step 4 – Make your pick!
My pick of the week is:
- Washington Commanders over the New York Giants
With an incredible six teams favored in Vegas by seven or more points this week, this should be a slam dunk, right? So many great options like Miami, Dallas, 49ers, etc. but like many of you I have one big problem: I’ve already used them all. So here we are, doing what I always tell you never to do: picking a division matchup. Yes, this game is in Washington and yes the Giants are playing some of the worst football in the league right now. That all being said, tread lightly and let’s all hope for the best!
Other options I like this week:
- San Francisco 49ers over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If you somehow haven’t picked the 49ers yet, now is the time. They are as hot as any team in the league right now and having Tampa traveling across the country for this game should give the 49ers a massive home field advantage. Had I not picked them earlier in the year, this would be my pick of the week.
- Miami Dolphins over the Las Vegas Raiders
Despite the Raiders being on a two game winning streak since firing their coach, the Dolphins are coming fresh off a bye and have been one of the most dominant teams at home this season. The anger from their last second loss to the Chiefs has been bubbling for two weeks and I expect them to take their frustration out on the Raiders this Sunday.
Last Week’s Record = 1-2
Season Record = 22-8
Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!
Thanks for reading!
