For Frequency Sake Fantasy Football,Gambling NFL Eliminator Challenge – WEEK 10

NFL Eliminator Challenge – WEEK 10

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Welcome to the eleventh season of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series.  For those of you who are new to our little group, we follow four simple steps to make our picks.  While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past.  We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter to give me your thoughts!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

We may have only had one division game last week, but you could argue it was also the best game of the week with Dallas falling only a couple yards shy of the upset on the final play of the game.  While we only have two games this week, I would still avoid them where you can.

Every year one of the top teams gets upset by a division rival.  The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen.  Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding these division matchups:

  • Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
  • New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

While the Monday night game was a blowout, the Thursday and Sunday games weren’t half bad.  Pittsburgh only won by four, and Cincy only won by six, two games that could have easily gone either way, and two I would have certainly not wanted to risk my season on.

For whatever reason, when primetime hits, some teams rise to the occasion while others shrink in the bright lights. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:

  • Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears
  • New York Jets @ Las Vegas Raiders
  • Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

0-2 on home field upsets in week nine, but that doesn’t mean you should forget what happened earlier in the season.  It is no accident that some of the best teams like the Eagles and Dolphins have yet to lose a game on their home turf.

While home field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with.  While this is one of our softer rules, I’m not ready to give up on it yet.  Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:

  • Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
  • New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings
  • San Francisco 49ers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals
  • Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Chargers
  • New York Jets @ Las Vegas Raiders

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

  • Cincinnati Bengals over the Houston Texans

The Cincinnati Bengals may be one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, riding a four game winning streak including their two most recent wins over the 49ers and Bills.  This week they host another up-and-coming team in the Houston Texans, but I think this game is too important for the Bengals to lose with the gauntlet of opponents they have coming up in the following few weeks.

 

Other options I like this week:

  • Pittsburgh Steelers over the Green Bay Packers

You have to hand it to Mike Tomlin; the guy knows how to win.  While the Steelers have been far from dominant, what they have done is beat both Cleveland and Baltimore and will be coming off extra rest before this game.  The Packers on the other hand seem unable to find their identity, and the fact this game is in Pittsburgh is the deciding factor for me.

  • Buffalo Bills over the Denver Broncos

Despite this being a prime time game, I just don’t see any scenario where Buffalo loses this one.  Coming off a tough loss in Cincinnati and the fact they are 1-2 in their last three games and 2-5 in their last five, the pattern says this one will be a win.  For the season they have yet to lose two games in a row and I don’t see it happening in front of their home crowd against a team that lost by 50 points earlier this year.  This should be a blowout.

Last Week’s Record = 3-0

Season Record = 21-6

Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

Thanks for reading!

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