Welcome to the eleventh season of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series. For those of you who are new to our little group, we follow four simple steps to make our picks. While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past. We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter to give me your thoughts!
Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups
We may not have had any division upsets in week six, but we sure had a big one in week seven. The 4-2 Bills traveled to the 1-5 Patriots, favored by more than a touchdown by Vegas. Instead, Bill Belichick did what he does best, and put together a great gameplan that confused the Buffalo offense all while putting up almost 30 points of offense of his own. The end result was a 29-25 victory for the Patriots and another example of why we always try to avoid division matchups.
Every year one of the top teams gets upset by a division rival. The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen. Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding these division matchups:
- Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
- New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
- Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
- Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups
It may have taken us until Monday night to finally get a prime time upset last week, but boy did we get a good one. The Vikings and Kirk Cousins certainly have a reputation of not playing their best in front of a prime time audience. Hosting the 5-1 49ers on Monday night, very few were giving the Vikings a chance as Vegas had the line favoring the 49ers by a touchdown. However, Kirk proved us all wrong throwing for 378 yards and 2 TDs en route to a massive upset on Monday night.
For whatever reason, when primetime hits, some teams rise to the occasion while others shrink in the bright lights. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills
- Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Chargers
- Las Vegas Raiders @ Detroit Lions
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage
Riddle me this. What did our division matchup upset and our prime time upset both have in common? In both instances, the home team was the victor. In fact nine home teams won last week out of 13, a win percentage of almost 70%! On top of the Patriots and Vikings upsets we saw the Bears upset the Raiders, the Giants upset the Commanders, and even the Broncos won against the favored Packers. It may have been one week, but we’re starting to see home field advantage show up more and more as this season progresses.
While home field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with. While this is one of our softer rules, I’m not ready to give up on it yet. Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:
- Atlanta Falcons @ Tennessee Titans
- New York Jets @ New York Giants
- Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers
- Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
- Houston Texans @ Carolina Panthers
- Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
- Baltimore Ravens @ Arizona Cardinals
Step 4 – Make your pick!
My pick of the week is:
- San Francisco 49ers over the Cincinnati Bengals
While it may seem counterintuitive to pick a team that just lost in prime time to a team they were supposed to humiliate, this pick is all about trusting that Shanahan won’t let this one go off the rails. The Bengals have not been the same team of years’ past, and they are going on a long road trip to San Francisco. Here’s betting that home field advantage prevails in this one.
Other options I like this week:
- Dallas Cowboys over the Los Angeles Rams
Shame on me for picking the Rams last week playing at home in LA. This week they travel to Dallas to play a Cowboys team coming off a bye and ready to prove that they are true contenders this season. While I expect this to be close, I think Dallas is the better team and home field advantage once again prevails.
- Los Angeles Chargers over the Chicago Bears
Not a lot of great options for our third pick, so I have a bit of a rule breaker here. The Chargers are coming off a tough division game, but the Chiefs are just heads and tails better than the rest of the AFC right now. Instead, this weekend the Chargers get to host a Bears team without their starting quarterback. This pick is all about assuming Brandon Staley doesn’t want to be the first coach fired in the 2023 season.
Last Week’s Record = 2-1
Season Record = 16-5
Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!
Thanks for reading!
