Welcome to the eleventh season of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series. For those of you who are new to our little group, we follow four simple steps to make our picks. While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past. We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter to give me your thoughts!
Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups
If week one didn’t give you a taste of why you should avoid division matchups, I’m not sure I’m going to be able to help you this season. Let’s start in Chicago where many expected the Bears to finally have the upper hand on the Packers and for once they were the betting favorite now that Aaron Rodgers was out of the lineup. Instead, a new quarterback came to Chicago, but had the same results of a Bears loss. Next up in Denver, the Broncos were the favorite with their shiny new head coach, but instead fell to the Raiders in front of their home crowd. How about the Seahawks being favored by 4.5 points getting blown out by the Rams in Seattle? Even the Bengals were favored by many in Cleveland after Burrow got his massive extension and instead they got smoked by the Browns. All this and we haven’t even talked about what happened on Monday Night! Avoid! Avoid! Avoid!
Every year one of the top teams gets upset by a division rival. The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen. Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding these division matchups:
- Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
- Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
- San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
- Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
- New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
- Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups
What a way to start the season with an upset in the very first game. Thursday night we watched the Lions stun the defending Super Bowl champions in front of the Kansas City faithful. While traditionally Mahomes isn’t someone I would bet against in prime time or on a normal Sunday afternoon, thanks to this rule we weren’t apart of the 8% of espn eliminator seasons that ended after the first game of 2023.
Fast forward to Monday night and we saw freak injuries, many, many turnovers and an overtime contest decided by a punt return touchdown. While Sunday night might have been a blowout, the two other games reminded us why this is step number two.
For whatever reason, when primetime hits, some teams rise to the occasion while others shrink in the bright lights (*cough Kirk Cousins *cough). Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:
- Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles
- Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
- New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
- Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage
Six teams. Only six home teams won out of 16 in week one. An astonishing, and embarrassing, 37.5% win rate. While steps one and two are holding strong, if this trend keeps up we may need to find a new step three this season.
While home field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with. While this is one of our softer rules, I’m not ready to give up on it yet. Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:
- Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
- Los Angeles Chargers @ Tennessee Titans
- Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
- San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
- New York Giants @ Arizona Cardinals
- Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
- New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
- Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Step 4 – Make your pick!
My pick of the week is:
- Dallas Cowboys over the New York Jets
The Cowboys went on the road last week and played a Giants team that many expected to be a playoff contender in 2023. They absolutely demolished them! This week they host a Jets team that just lost their star QB for the season, is coming off a short week and traveling half way across the country. There may be another 40-0 performance coming this Sunday.
Other options I like this week:
- Buffalo Bills over the Las Vegas Raiders
Let’s be frank, the Bills were bad on Monday night. Josh Allen was not his normal self and that is not something we should expect every week from this team. They were on the road, first week of the season, bright lights of prime time and lost a very close one in overtime. Fast forward to week two and they get to return home and host a Raiders team traveling across the country to play a 1pm game. My money is on Buffalo rebounding in this one.
- Detroit Lions over the Seattle Seahawks
There is definitely some recency bias here, but how can you not love what Detroit did, traveling to Kansas City and beating the reigning Super Bowl Champs in the very first game of the season? In week two they get to return home and host a Seattle team that just got beat badly by a Rams team many expected to be one of the worst teams in the league. While I don’t expect a blowout here, I do wonder if Tutu Atwell can put 119 yards on the Seattle defense, what St. Brown can do in this one.
Last Week’s Record = 2-1
Season Record = 2-1
Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!
Thanks for reading!
