For Frequency Sake Gambling NFL Eliminator Challenge – WEEK 15

NFL Eliminator Challenge – WEEK 15

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Welcome to Week 15, Season 10, of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series! For those of you who are new to our series, we follow four simple steps to make our picks. While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past. We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to hit me up on Twitter to give me your thoughts!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

Week 14 brought us seven different division matchups, and while there weren’t any major upsets, there were some surprises. The Lions, while favored in Vegas, were expected by many to lose to the Vikings, but instead won very convincingly. Similarly down in Tennessee, a bigger surprise was watching the Jaguars absolutely pummel the Titans. Even in Pittsburgh, the Steelers were a missed FG away from beating the rival Ravens. Get ready for an exciting final month of division games!

Division games are fun, exciting, and sometimes surprising. Every single year one of the top teams gets upset by an underdog division rival.  The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen. Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding this week’s division matchups:

  • San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
  • Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
  • Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
  • Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
  • New York Giants @ Washington Commanders

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

While the Monday night and Sunday night games weren’t precisely thrillers, we were rewarded with an awesome Thursday night game as newly acquired Baker Mayfield, only a couple of days into the playbook, not only played on a short week but led two scoring drives in the final three minutes culminating in a touchdown pass with 10 seconds left in the game to win by a single point.  Prime-time games can’t get much better than that!

Prime-time games are in prime time for a reason. Expect close games where the unexpected can happen. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid this week’s marquee games:

  • San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
  • Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
  • New York Giants @ Washington Commanders
  • Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

With only four home teams marked as underdogs this past week, we didn’t have a lot of opportunity to witness home-field advantage, but with some shocking upsets in Los Angeles both on Thursday night and Sunday night, there was certainly something in the air on the west coast, and it wasn’t just smog.

While home-field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with. Be aware of this week’s games where the favorite is the away team:

  • San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
  • Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
  • Dallas Cowboys @ Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans
  • Cincinnati Bengals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • New England Patriots @ Las Vegas Raiders

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

  • Carolina Panthers over the Pittsburgh Steelers

I’m not sure I expected the Panthers to be a pick of the week anytime soon after how the first half of this season went, but all of a sudden this team has real playoff aspirations is playing sound football, and coming off an upset win over Seattle on the road. Considering the Steelers couldn’t beat a Ravens team with their third-string QB, I expect Carolina to handle business at home in this one.

 Other options I like this week:

  • Denver Broncos over the Arizona Cardinals

While the Broncos by no means have been a great team this season, they played Kansas City strong last week and this week they host a Cardinals team missing their star player. While I don’t expect a blowout, this late in the season we need some swings on teams we haven’t picked yet, and here is one option for you.

  • Kansas City Chiefs over the Houston Texans

While the odds of you having not used KC yet this far down the season are rare, if you do have them sitting in your back pocket they are playing the worst team in the NFL and I’m not sure it matters where this game is taking place.

Last Week’s Record = 2-1

Season Record = 31-11

Follow me on Twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

Thanks for reading!

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