Welcome to Week 14, Season 10, of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series! For those of you who are new to our series, we follow four simple steps to make our picks. While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past. We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to hit me up on Twitter to give me your thoughts!
Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups
After Week 12 had only one division game, we were rewarded with much more excitement in Week 13. Week 13 gave us two division games decided in the final minute on top of a game that ended in a tie. We will get to the thrilling Monday night finish in the next step, but let’s not ignore the game in Los Angeles where there were four lead changes in the fourth quarter with the Seahawks scoring the game-winning touchdown with less than a minute remaining!
Division games are fun, exciting, and sometimes surprising. Every year, one of the top teams gets upset by an underdog division rival. The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen. Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding this week’s division matchups:
- New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
- Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
- Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
- Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
- Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
- Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
- Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups
It took until the final prime-time game, but we finally got our nail-biter on Monday night. Thanks to Tom Brady, a player very familiar with playing under the bright lights of prime time, we got to watch another comeback for the ages as he threw the game-winning touchdown with only three seconds remaining.
Prime time games are in prime time for a reason. Expect close games where the unexpected can happen. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid this week’s marquee games:
- Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Rams
- Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Chargers
- New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage
A whopping nine teams were favored on the road this past weekend, one of the biggest swings we have seen this season. Of those teams, four were upset with the biggest shocker probably coming in Kansas City where the Chiefs lost a game in December, something that hasn’t happened often with Mahomes at the helm. While the home-field advantage isn’t back, it also hasn’t fully disappeared either.
While home-field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with. Be aware of this week’s games where the favorite is the away team:
- Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Rams
- Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
- Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Chargers
- Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Step 4 – Make your pick!
My pick of the week is:
- Dallas Cowboys over the Houston Texans
This may be the easiest pick of the season. The Cowboys are a whopping 17-point favorite as of Tuesday and there is a real possibility that could even grow. The Texans got blown out last week against the Browns and the Browns never even scored an offensive touchdown. This one could get ugly!
Other options I like this week:
- Seattle Seahawks over the Carolina Panthers
After cutting Baker Mayfield the Panthers clearly have their sights set on next year while the Seahawks are only one game behind their division leader. While I don’t expect a blowout here, this game just means way more to Seattle than Carolina.
- Kansas City Chiefs over the Denver Broncos
With so many division games this week there aren’t a lot of great options for alternates, so this is all about putting my money on the fact that I don’t expect Mahomes to lose back-to-back games in December, not with the No. 1 seed still up for grabs in the AFC.
Last Week’s Record = 3-0
Season Record = 29-10
Follow me on Twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!
Thanks for reading!
