NFL DFS Fire and Ice Picks-Week 10

November 13, 2021

Heading into week ten, DFS players are dealing with a slew of injuries, in addition to the typical bye weeks and “prime time” games. Over the last two days, both Alvin Kamara(knee) and Nick Chubb(COVID restrictions) were ruled out for week ten. In addition, it was reported on Saturday that Robert Woods had suffered a season-ending ACL tear.

Along with the rash of injuries, four teams will be on bye in week ten. These four teams are: 1) Bears; 2) Bengals; 3) Texans, and 4) Giants. The three “prime time” games are 1) Thursday Night-Ravens @ Dolphins; 2) Sunday Night- Chiefs @ Raiders; and 3) Monday Night-Rams @ 49ers.

Review of Week Nine Results:

In full discretion, week nine turned out to be my worst week of selections for the year. By far, my worst selection was Justin Herbert as an “ice play”. He proceeded to complete 32 of 38 pass attempts for 356 yards and two touchdowns while adding a rushing touchdown. My best selection of the day was Marquise Brown as a “Fire” selection. Brown had 9 catches for 116 yards on the day. In addition to Brown, Hunter Renfrow as a “bargain bin” selection also did well. He had 7 catches for 49 yards and a TD( 17.9 PPR fantasy points).

Fire Them Up!!

Quarterback:

Dak Prescott, Cowboys-$6900-vs Falcons: Following a miserable game against the Broncos in week nine(completed 19 of 39 pass attempts for 232 yards and two touchdowns in a 30-16 loss), Prescott will look to rebound. After a bye week and missing a game due to a calf injury, the entire offense looked completely out of sync for three quarters. The two passing touchdowns came in garbage time after the Broncos had built a 25-0 lead. Taking on a Falcons’ defense that gives up the eighth most fantasy points to quarterbacks, Dak should finish amongst the top 7 QBs this week.

Running Back:

Najee Harris, Steelers-$7900-vs Lions; On the season, Harris has registered 150 carries for 541 yards and four touchdowns while adding 40 receptions for 289 yards and two TDs. Harris has averaged 18.4 PPR fantasy points per game and scored a touchdown in four out of the last five games. In week ten, he takes on a Lions’ defense that allows the second most fantasy points to running backs. He should finish the week as one of the top three options at his position.

Wide Receiver:

Keenan Allen, Chargers-$7k-vs Vikings: On the season, Allen has 57 catches (on 82 targets) for 600 yards and two touchdowns. He is coming off of arguably his best game of the season in week nine’s 27-24 win over the Eagles. Allen had twelve catches(on 13 targets) for 104 yards in the game. Facing a Vikings’ defense that allows the 6th most fantasy points to WRs, Allen should be a solid WR1 in week ten.

Tight End:

T.J. Hockenson, Lions-$5500-@ Steelers: Week 10 is a very unusual “main slate” for tight ends. All four top tight ends in weekly rankings (Travis Kelce/ Darren Waller/ George Kittle/ Mark Andrews) play in “prime time” games.

That being said, my two favorite upper-tier tight-end options for the “main slate” are Kyle Pitts and Hockenson. Over the last three games that he has played (the Lions had a week nine bye), Hockenson has recorded 24 catches (on 31 targets) for 211 yards and zero touchdowns. Despite a tough matchup( the Steelers give up the 13th fewest fantasy points to tight ends), Hockenson should finish as the TE1 for this slate.

Colder Than Ice:

Quarterback:

Jalen Hurts, Eagles- $6500-@ Broncos: Over the last two games (a 44-6 win over the Lions and a 27-24 loss to the Chargers) the Eagles have turned to a run dominant offense. Hurts has completed 20 of only 31 pass attempts for 265 yards and a touchdown combined during that span. His rushing (17 carries for 133 yards and zero touchdowns) has provided him at least a minimal floor. Doing him no favors for week ten, the Broncos allow the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Look for Hurts to fall outside of the Top 12 QB scorers this week.

Running Back:

https://www.actionnetwork.com/fantasy-football/james-robinson-injury-report-how-will-jaguars-rbs-outlook-impact-fantasy-in-week-10

James Robinson/Carlos Hyde, Jaguars-$6200/$5k-@ Colts: As of Saturday, Robinson is considered questionable with a heel injury. In Week 9, with Robinson sidelined, Hyde had nine carries for 32 yards and a touchdown. His six catches for 40 yards salvaged his fantasy day. This week, the Jaguars take on a Colts’ defense that allows the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs. If Robinson plays, DFS players can use him as a volume-based RB2. If Robinson sits, Hyde should be used as nothing more than a flex.

Wide Receiver:

D.K. Metcalf, Seahawks-$6800-@ Packers: Despite the excitement that comes with Russell Wilson returning to game action, expectations should be tempered in this one. Despite playing with Geno Smith under center for the last four games, Metcalf has put up another outstanding season. He has 39 catches (on 56 targets) for 580 yards and eight touchdowns.

Facing a Packers’ defense that surrenders the seventh fewest fantasy points to WRs should prove to be a tall task. Although one can never completely fade Metcalf, except him to be more of a WR2 this week, as opposed to the WR1 numbers that he typically puts up.

Tight End:

Dallas Goedert, Eagles-$4700-@ Broncos: Although I hate to pick on the same team twice in one article, Goedert’s matchup against a Broncos’s defense allows the second fewest fantasy points to tight ends is reason enough. Goedert has still put up solid numbers (9 catches for 115 yards) over the last two weeks, despite such a limited number of pass attempts by Hurts. That being said, look for him to finish outside of the top eight at his position in week ten.

Bargain Bin-Deep Tourney Plays

Quarterback:

Matt Ryan, Falcons-$6k-@ Cowboys: As goes without saying, the Cowboys/Falcons game is one of my favorite games on the main slate. On the season, Ryan has completed 209 of 301 pass attempts for 2157 yards and 15 touchdowns. Not that he needs it, but taking on a Cowboys’ defense that allows the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks will give him an additional boost in this week’s rankings. Look for Ryan to finish the week as a top ten quarterback.

Running Back:

https://clutchpoints.com/browns-news-browns-rb-nick-chubbs-injury-stats-brings-major-implications-to-fantasy-football/

D’ernest Johnson, Browns-$4700-@ Patriots: As mentioned previously in the article, Nick Chubb will miss Week 10 due to COVID restrictions. In Johnson’s only start of the season, he amassed 22 carries for 146 yards and a touchdown in a week six win against the Broncos. With Kareem Hunt still on IR, Johnson will assume three down responsibilities. Although the matchup against the Patriots isn’t easy (the Patriots allow the 15th-most fantasy points to running backs), look for him to be a volume-based low-end RB1.

Wide Receiver:

Jerry Jeudy, Broncos-$5300-vs Eagles: This week’s selections are based more on talent and opportunity, than they are based on favorable matchups. The Eagles actually give up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers on the season. That being said, Jeudy’s role continues to evolve as this is his third week back from an ankle injury that had sidelined him for six weeks. In his first two games since his return, Jeudy has secured a team-high 12 targets and turned them into ten catches for 111 yards and zero touchdowns. DFS players should use Jeudy as a Top 24 wide receiver this week.

Tight End:

Pat Freiermuth, Steelers-$3900-vs Lions: In the continuing theme of choosing talent and opportunity over matchup, Freiermuth takes on a Lions’ defense that gives up the eleventh-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. He has simply been on too much of a roll over his last three games to sit him. Over those three games, Freiermuth has registered 16 catches (on 20 targets) for 145 yards and three touchdowns. Look for him to continue the hot streak, finishing as a top-eight tight end this week.

Stack of the Week:

Although a little on the pricier side($14500), my favorite stack of the week is Tom Brady and Mike Evans. The Bucs are on the road in a matchup against the Washington Football Team. As a defense, Washington gives up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks and the second most to wide receivers. With both Antonio Brown( ankle) and Rob Gronkowski (back) already ruled out for the game, Brady’s target tree will be somewhat reduced. Chris Godwin ($7100), WR Tyler Johnson ($3300), and TE O.J. Howard also makes for intriguing stacking options.