NFL DFS Fire and Ice Picks-Week Eight

October 30, 2021

After a bye bonanza of six teams in Week 7, only two teams (Ravens and Raiders) have byes in Week 8. In addition to the two teams on bye, the following “Prime Time” games are also not part of the “main slate”: 1) Thursday Night-Packers @ Cardinals, 2) Sunday Night-Cowboys @ Vikings, and 3) Monday Night-Giants @ Chiefs.

Review of Week Seven Results:

As much as we all love fantasy football, family and friends should ALWAYS come first. After a three-year battle with Chronic Kidney Disease, a complete stranger (at the time) came forward to save my life. Both my brother and best friend had tested to be a living kidney donors, but both were rejected after extensive testing. Other family members had also offered but were turned away before testing even began.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/beautiful-strength-the-podcast/id1483069364

Growing frustrated and feeling helpless, my wife Sarah and I turned to a massive social media search. Our lives changed forever on February 26th, 2020. We reached out to Annette McNamara, the founder of Beautiful Strength(a nonprofit organization here in Nashville). Annette is a photographer by trade, who does photoshoots and podcasts for those going through difficult times. Annette did our podcast on the 26th and posted it on Facebook the following day.

Our eventual donor, Jacie Fouts, heard it and reached out to Sarah later on the 27th to say “you don’t know me, but I’m with you the rest of tithe way”. After multiple tests and blood work, we were a match and had a successful transplant on August 11th, 2020. Sarah and I traveled to Phoenix this past week to spend time with Jacie and her husband, Duane. A great time was had by all, and we look forward to our lifelong friendship.

Fire Them Up!!

Quarterback:

Jalen Hurts, Eagles-$7200-@ Lions: On the season, Hurts has completed 148-of-242 pass attempts (61.2 percent) for 1,716 yards and ten touchdowns. In addition, he has had 66 carries for 361 yards and five touchdowns. Although his completion percentage has increased from 52% in 2020 to 61.2%, there is an opportunity for growth in both yards per attempt and yards per completion.

In Week 8, he will face a Lions’ defense that gives up the 12th-most fantasy points to QBs. With an implied total of 26, Hurts will be a top-five option for Week 8.

Running Back:

Darrell Henderson, Rams-$6500-@ Texans: Through six games, Henderson has 96 rushes for 417 yards and four touchdowns. He has also added 15 catches (on 22 targets) for 138 yards and an additional touchdown. With 555 total yards, five total touchdowns, and 15 catches, Henderson is averaging 16.8 PPR fantasy points per game.

Henderson takes on a Texans’ defense that allows the 11th-most fantasy points to RBs. With the highest implied total on the board (31), he should exceed his weekly average. DFS players should view him as a Top 10 option in Week 8.

Wide Receiver:

A.J. Brown, Titans-$6900-@ Colts: After a slow start to the season (10 catches through Week 5 while missing parts of two games), Brown has really been on fire the last two games. In Weeks 6 and 7 combined, Brown has 15 catches (on 18 targets) for 224 yards and one touchdown. Equally important, he has hauled in 83% of his targets compared to the 40% to start the season.

In Week 8, he looks to continue his hot streak. Brown has a very exploitable matchup against a Colts’ defense that allows the eighth-most fantasy points to WRs. With fellow wide receiver Julio Jones out with a hamstring injury, look for Brown to be an even bigger target hog. With an implied total of 24, Brown should be a Top 10 wide receiver this week

Tight End:

T.J. Hockenson, Lions-$5400-vs Eagles: Despite having 16 catches and two touchdowns in the first two games of the year, Hockenson has really struggled over the last five games. He has 22 receptions (on 33 targets) for 196 yards and zero touchdowns. Although he does have 14 catches over the last two weeks combined, Hockenson looks to ramp things up even more against an Eagles’ defense that allows the sixth-most fantasy points to TEs. With many top TEs being on bye or playing in a prime time game, DFS players should view him as a top-three option for the “main slate”.

Colder than Ice:

Quarterback:

Joe Burrow, Bengals-$7100-@ Jets: Burrow has been on a tear over the last four weeks, completing 93-of-137 pass attempts (67.8 percent) for 1,316 yards and 10 touchdowns. As his production has increased, so has his DraftKings price tag. Four weeks ago, it was sitting at $5500. Although $7100 seems fair, it makes Burrow much harder to incorporate into lineups.

Even though the Jets would seem like an easy target to pick on, they have given up the eighth-fewest fantasy points to QBs on the season. On the other hand, the Jets have given up the most fantasy points to running backs. As almost 11-point favorites, look for the Bengals to get ahead early and rely on the run to maintain the lead. With fewer pass attempts, Burrow will finish outside the Top 10 this week.

Running Back:

Leonard Fournette, Bucs-$6300-@ Saints: Over the last three games, Fournette has combined for a total of 61 touches. With those 61 touches, he has netted 327 yards and four touchdowns. After adding in 12 catches, he is averaging almost 23 PPR fantasy points per game over that stretch.

Despite his incredible recent production, look for Fournette to fall outside of the Top 15 running backs for Week 8. The Saints yield the third-fewest fantasy points to RBs, so DFS players should anticipate tough sledding for Fournette.

Wide Receiver:

Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team-$7600-@ Broncos: On the season, McLaurin has 40 catches for 550 yards and four touchdowns. In Week 7, he had seven catches for 122 yards and a TD. Despite the monster production against the Packers, look for the Broncos to be a tougher task this week. Facing a defense that allows the ninth-fewest fantasy points to WRs, DFS players should expect McLaurin to finish outside of the top 12.

Tight End:

Mike Gesicki, Dolphins-$5k-vs Bills: Over the last two games with Tua Tagovailoa under center, Gesicki has a combined 15 catches (on 17 targets) for 200 yards and a touchdown. Facing a Bills’ defense that allows the eighth-fewest fantasy points to TEs, look for him to have a decline in production this week. With an implied total of only 17, Gesicki should finish outside of the Top 10 at his position.

Bargain Bin-Deep Tourney Plays:

Quarterback:

Carson Wentz, Colts-$5700-vs Titans: Wentz is on a current streak of two touchdown passes in each of the last four games. In Week seven’s rain-filled 30-18 win at the 49ers, Wentz completed 17 of 26 pass attempts for 150 yards and two touchdowns, while rushing four times for 23 yards and an additional touchdown.

Wentz faces a Titans’ defense that allows the eighth-most fantasy points to QBs on Sunday. In a game featuring the highest over/under (50.5) of the main slate, Wentz should have a ton of pass attempts. With the ample opportunity, Wentz should be viewed as a top 12 option.

Running Back:

Kenneth Gainwell, Eagles-$5k-@ Lions:

https://theeagleswire.usatoday.com/lists/philadelphia-eagles-miles-sanders-injured-reserve-ankle-injury/

After Sanders injured his ankle in the first half of week seven’s 33-22 loss at the Raiders, Gainwell had nine touches (including four catches on eight targets) for 61 yards and a receiving TD. On the season, Gainwell now has 26 rushes for 120 yards and two touchdowns, while adding 19 catches(on 31 targets) for 164 yards and a third TD.

Although Boston Scott may lead the team in carries in Week 8, Gainwell will have a major role against a Lions’ defense that allows the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs. With an implied total of 26, Gainwell should finish amongst the Top 20 running backs this week.

Wide Receiver:

Jerry Jeudy, Broncos-$4800-vs Washington Football Team: After missing the last six games with an ankle injury, Jeudy was activated from IR on Saturday. In his only game action of the year, Jeudy had six catches (on seven targets) for 72 yards back in week one. Against a Washington defense that allows the second-most fantasy points to WRs, Jeudy should be viewed as a Top-24 wide receiver option with upside for more.

Tight End:

Hunter Henry, Patriots-$4200-@Chargers: Despite limited targets (19 over the last four games), Henry has scored in four consecutive games and has 14 catches over that span. As four-point underdogs in a game with an over/under of 49, Henry should have an opportunity for increased targets. With the Chargers giving up the second-most fantasy points to TEs, Henry should finish the week as a top-six option.

Stack of the Week:

With the Rams having an implied total of 31, my favorite stack of the week is Matthew Stafford and Robert Woods ($13,900). On the season, Stafford has completed 167-of-241 pass attempts (69.3%) for 2172 yards and 19 touchdowns. Meanwhile, Woods has scored at least 11.1 fantasy points in each of the last three games.

Facing a Texans’ defense that allows the 11th-most fantasy points to QBs, look for Stafford and Woods to combine on at least one touchdown. With a salary of less than $14k, this stack will allow roster flexibility throughout the rest of your lineup.