Bet on That for Week 4

October 3, 2020

Week 3 was fun! Wish I could have predicted the result of the Monday night football game a bit better, but I would not have been surprised if it was the exact opposite result and all we were talking about this week was Lamar Jackson. As it was, Mahomes is pretty good. And overall, this is the second week I have posted winning picks more than losers. After an 0-3 start, I am now settled in at 5-4 through three weeks. I am sure it will only go downhill from here, but I will keep dropping knowledge as if I know something!

Let’s roll into Week 4…

LOCK PICK OF THE WEEK

Green Bay Packers (-7.5) vs Atlanta Falcons

I tried hard to find a game I liked better (or even as close) as this game. Atlanta is due for a win and Green Bay is due for a loss. With that said, that is all that I do not like about this matchup.

Green Bay is only second to Dallas (1-2) in yards per game on offense. They are No. 1 in overall in points per game averaging 40+ per contest. They have played some halfway decent defenses (at least they were supposed to be coming into 2020), so I have to assume that this offense is for real. They may or may not get Davante Adams back on Monday. If they do, bet the house on Green Bay. However, last week they did not have Adams and still carved up the Saints 37-30. They only had 370 (they are averaging 490/game) yards of offense that night and still managed to put up 37 points. Hard to bet against them, especially when it is in Green Bay on Monday night.

That is the good news with the Packers, the bad news is that they have been in shootouts in all three of their games. They usually will start to pull away in the fourth quarter, but their defense will likely give up some points.

Atlanta is coming off a historic pair of losses where they were more than a 99 percent chance to win the game in the fourth quarter and blew the lead twice. This could either light a fire under their ass, or they will continue to be that team that will lose it in the final minutes.

The main reason I don’t like Atlanta here is because they are without their No. 1 wide receiver, Julio Jones. They are also missing his back up – Justin Gage who suffered a concussion last week. They still have some weapons, but Green Bay should be able to focus on those players. I do not expect Atlanta to score as many points as they have in the first three weeks. I predict this score will end up somewhere around 42-30 Green Bay.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) at Houston Texans

I like a lot of the favorites this week. In fact, I think the lines are pretty good and that there were quite a few that are too close to call. With that said, I look at this matchup between two 0-3 teams and know that one of them will be 0-5 when this is over and one will be 1-4. Why the Vikings?

There are a couple of reasons I chose Minnesota. The main reason is I think Houston thinks they are better than they actually are. They have had the toughest schedule in the league to date and are probably looking at this game as an easy win. Minnesota on the other hand was just a possession away from beating Tennessee last week and offensively had a RB who went over 175 yards and a WR who went over 175 yards in the same game. Unreal! I also look at preseason expectations and everyone was picking Minnesota to finish atop the NFC North. While they have played horrible in 2 out of 3 weeks, last week showed us what they are capable of and I have to think that they will start to turn it around and start competing. They have some awesome weapons on offense, as was shown last week. The defense is better than they have been playing. So it is only a matter of time and I think this is the week they get their first win…if not, it should b e a close game and I think they still cover the 3.5 spread.

Baltimore has not shown us much this season. Deshaun Watson is an amazing QB, but without anyone to help him, he is a one-trick pony – easy to defend. The Houston defense has been nothing spectacular either. I see Houston keeping it close because they are playing at home, but I just do not think they will score enough to stop an offense that seems to be catching fire in Minnesota.

GAME OF THE WEEK

New England Patriots (+7) at Kansas City Chiefs

I am starting to think that the Chiefs will be in this GAME OF THE WEEK part of the column quite a bit this season…

This should be a close game. The Chiefs are coming off an emotional win and are prime for an upset. I think that Bill Belicheck is just the coach to keep Patrick Mahomes on his heels rather than torching them like they did to the Ravens.

The Patriots and Cam Newton are outperforming their expectations so far this year. Cam has had a chip on his shoulder since he got into the league and I think this year he will finish as a top 5 QB. Belicheck is an amazing coach and will have a plan for the Chiefs. If New England can keep doing what they have been doing on offense, I expect this to be a close game and even expect that New England could pull off an upset as I think the Chiefs will be looking ahead to their division game against Las Vegas (2-1) in week 5.