DFS Ice and Fire — Week 4 picks

October 3, 2020
Chubb and Andrews look to earn their price tag while Mixon and Moore are set to disappoint once more

Week 4 is on the horizon and not a minute too soon. It’s been a tumultuous week with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans postponing their game. Meanwhile Cam Newton has also tested positive for COVID-19, putting the Patriots game against the Chiefs in question as well. The DFS options are still plentiful, however. Here we go!

All values are subject to DraftKings’ prices and scoring format. All ownership data is courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator.

Fire em’ up!

QB:

Tom Brady vs. LAC ($6,100)

Barely owned and in a nice matchup while at home. What more can you ask of Brady, who also faces the 23rd-ranked defense against the quarterback? The Chargers have been stout against the run, which exposes Arians to fully utilize his pass-happy scheme. The Chargers are also without star slot cornerback Chris Harris Jr. Even without Chris Godwin, Brady is a great DFS option on Sunday.

RB:

Nick Chubb @ DAL ($7,000)

Kareem Hunt is looking likely to miss Sunday’s tilt against the Cowboys, but the ownership projections have not shot up for Chubb, who could see immense volume. The matchup is not great, but Chubb is the type of talent in the right scheme to supersede a matchup. He could see some of Hunt’s receiving work on top of his usual volume, which makes a top finish quite likely. The Browns offense revolves around the run game and keeping the Cowboys’ offense off the field should be a huge part of the game plan. They do that through Chubb, who is well worth paying up for this week.

WR:

D.J. Chark @ CIN ($6,000)

Does anyone think that the Bengals’ high-ranked defense against fantasy wide receivers is indicative of their talent? Anyone?

The matchup does not scare me away from Chark, who the Jaguars sorely missed in last week’s loss to the Miami Dolphins. It hasn’t been a dominant start for the third-year receiver, but this will be the game where he starts cooking. The Bengals will put up points and the Jaguars, led by Chark, will need to respond. The game script should be good and with Chark finally carrying no injury designation, he will perform as the top option he was drafted to be.

TE:

Mark Andrews @ WAS ($6,000)

The stink of Andrews’ Week 3 drop-fest has left DFS players a bit wary. Despite him going against the 29th-ranked defense against the tight end position, his ownership projection is incredibly low. He still saw a season-high in targets last week, but he just failed to reel them in. It’s a mistake he will rectify against Washington. We don’t doubt the talent, right? Every star has a bad game; good thing Washington represents a spot to take out those frustrations. A big bounce back game for Andrews is coming, so find a way to get him in your DFS lineups.

Colder than ice

QB:

Dak Prescott vs. CLE ($7,000)

Apparently, I have not learned my lesson about fading top fantasy quarterbacks for DFS purposes. This will be an Ezekiel Elliot week, pounding the rock to fantasy gold. Prescott will certainly still have a valuable floor due to his scheme and weapons, but with the Browns expected to slow the game down, Prescott is not worth the money this week. Throw in his projected ownership of 17.9 percent, and why bother?

RB:

Joe Mixon vs. JAX ($5,800)

Mixon’s ownership projection is surprisingly high (20.5 percent) for a player who has done nothing but disappoint in 2020. The Jaguars are certainly a tantalizing matchup, but the offensive line has yet to show any signs of improvement. Mixon is just not on the field when it matters; Giovani Bernard is. Mixon was also added to the injury report on Saturday with a chest injury, another variable to factor in. He has yet to show the upside to support being a viable DFS option on top of a high projected ownership due to his name and matchup.

WR:

D.J. Moore vs. ARI ($5,600)

Few fantasy players were higher on Moore than I was entering this season and I maintain that he can still turn it around. But it won’t happen this week against the Cardinals who have allowed the fourth-fewest amount of fantasy points to wide receivers. Robby Anderson is the No. 1 target in this offense and Teddy Bridgewater has yet to show the connection I hoped to see with Moore. As you can tell, ownership projections are very important, and Moore is the highest projected owned wide receiver in DFS this week at 44.2 percent. Stay away.

TE:

Mike Gesicki vs. SEA ($5,100)

For the life of me, I cannot understand Gesicki’s price tag. Seattle has been beat everywhere but the tight end this season, ranking sixth against the position. They will be exposed by Devante Parker and Preston Williams — not Gesicki. The tight end has just one game with over three receptions and that came against the Bills who have been a sieve against the tight end this season. Pay up a little bit more for a guy like Mark Andrews or go cheaper with the bargain bin option this week below before you waste your DFS budget on the Dolphins tight end.

Bargain Bin/DFS deep dives

QB:

Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. SEA ($5,400)

Gesicki’s fade does not mean anything for Fitzpatrick who has shown the ceiling DFS owners crave. Both Parker and Williams should have a good day against Seattle’s fragile secondary that is now without star safety Jamal Adams and they would be featured on this list if their ownership projections were not so darn high. Regardless, Fitzpatrick is a cheap option with immense upside in what projects to be a shootout against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. Plus, it’s always fun to gamble on Fitzmagic.

RB:

Mark Ingram @ WAS ($5,700)

It may not be super cheap, but the Washington Football Team just lost their two best defensive linemen in Matt Ioannidis and Chase Young, making Ingram a smash play. The production hasn’t been there for the veteran running back to date, but this is a good get-right matchup where a multi-touchdown day seems likely. Roll the dice on a team desperate to rebound from last week’s performance against the Chiefs and choose the Raven.

WR:

Scotty Miller vs. LAC ($4,100)

As mentioned prior, Chris Harris Jr. is out. Miller should man the slot as the No. 2 option while Mike Evans contends with star cornerback Casey Hayward. People may have been burnt by Millers’ Week 2 disappearance with Godwin off the field, but turn the other cheek and give him another shot. Godwin will miss this game with a hamstring injury and it’s entirely likely that Evans disappears as well. Miller and Brady will combine for plenty of big plays that will leave your other DFS friends impressed you had the guts to play both.

TE:

Dalton Schultz vs. CLE ($4,300)

Schultz didn’t exactly follow up his Week 2 breakout with a stellar outing. But on the bright side, he still saw six targets in a tough matchup against Seattle. Cleveland has allowed the third-most points to the tight end this season, and Schultz will look to exploit that this weekend. For the price tag with a low ownership projection, take a swing at the third-year tight end.