Two weeks have passed and the dust has literally settled on the first-ever Bristol dirt race. Drivers have had the chance to wash their fire suits and are ready to hit their second short track of the season. This track though, will be a lot less dirty than the last one they encountered. Also for the first time of the season, the race will be run on Saturday night. It’s the Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 from the historic Martinsville Speedway. It’s 500 laps around the unforgiving paperclip. What’s more, it’s another chance for you to enjoy winning money on Monkey Knife Fight.
If you are reading this article and haven’t signed up for Monkey Knife Fight, what are you waiting for? In fact, if you sign up now and use the promo code “FFSQC” they will match your deposit 100% up to $50. That is free money waiting for you to grab.
Here are some of my favorite plays from this week’s contests. Scoring in these contests is based on finishing positions inside the top 20 with 20 points awarded to first place. An additional 0.1 points are tacked on for each lap led. Below are some picks to help you get started in your MKF contests.
More Or Less
Brad Keselowski Less Than 19.5 Fantasy Points
In order to score this amount of fantasy points, a driver needs to either win the race, or finish in any other position with enough laps led to make up the difference. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Brad Keselowski could win this race, he’s done it twice in his career. It just seems more likely given his recent fantasy output at this track, he’ll fail to reach this mark. He won the Spring race of the 2019 season.
Since then, though, he’s had two third place and one fourth finishes. In those three races, he led only eight laps. Keep in mind, it’s not about how well he runs here that is the key to cashing this prop, it’s finishing with enough points for it to hit. He has yet to do it a single time in seven tries this season.
Ryan Blaney More Than 17.5 Fantasy Points
Name a driver that has finished inside the top-10 in 60% of his races at the track. I’m betting you didn’t guess Ryan Blaney. The unheralded pilot of the #12 Menards Ford Mustang is coming off back-to-back second place finishes on this short track. All told, he’s tallied finishes of 8th or better six times out of his ten entries. Not to mention, he’s led 215 laps along the way including 34 in last year’s Blue-Emu 500.
Blaney rolls off from the fourth position this Saturday night thanks in large part to his outstanding performance these last two weeks. He followed up his big win in Atlanta with an eighth place run in the dirt at Bristol. All he needs here is a third place finish, or at least a top five with a couple dozen laps led. This is well within his reach.
Martin Truex Jr. (+1.5) More Fantasy Points Than Brad Keselowski
Here, let’s work off the premise that Keselowski will not be winning this race, but will still finish as one of the top five cars. To win this prop, Martin Truex Jr. will have to do something he’s quite comfortable doing. He’ll need to win the race. It’s something he’s done two out the last three times at Martinsville. What’s more, he’s led an obscene amount of laps along the way. Using the same three race sample size, he led 725 of the 1499 total laps possible. He’s already starting three spots ahead of Keselowski and with his bonus, will easily stay ahead of him.
Joey Logano (+0.5) More Fantasy Points Than Denny Hamlin
This history of this head to head matchup is quite the back and forth affair. That said, in 2020, the edge belonged to Joey Logano as he logged better finishes in both of the season outings. In the Spring race, Logano finished in fourth place while Denny Hamlin finished a disappointing 24th. That fall, Logano finished third and Hamlin eleventh. The past aside, both of these drivers are red hot this season. Each has run at the front of the pack many times this season but Logano holds a slight edge. He won last week on the dirt track at Bristol. The two start side by side Saturday night, so expect the sparks to fly at the drop of the green flag and continue all night. In the end though, Logano should do enough to ride his half point head start to win this prop.