NFL DFS – Week 9 #SleeperValuePicks

November 7, 2020

** GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY **

QB

  • Drew Lock vs ATL – $5200
    • Shoutout @Lindellions
    • I think Drew Lock showed us something last week with the comeback victory against divisional foe LAC (and yes.. I know about the Chargers DEF deficiencies of late)
    • ATL’s defense has the same problem & ATL’s OFF should keep this a high scoring game.
    • The following are ATL weekly DEF average stats allowed to QB’s in 2020
      • 27 completions, 38 attempts, 324 pass yards, 2.5 TD’s
    • 3 games with 4 passing TD’s allowed
    • 23 total TD’s scored by QB’s – 20 pass / 3 rush
  • Jake Luton vs HOU – $4900
    • JAX has the skill players to produce vs a bad HOU defense, but this is nothing more than a Hail Mary contrarian play.
    • I don’t think he’s going to light up the league by any means but *could* produce in favorable matchups due to his supporting cast.
    • Dart. Throw.

RB

  • Antonio Gibson vs NYG – $5800
    • Coming off a bye week, after his first ever 100+ yard rushing game, I expect Gibson to be heavily involved in WFT’s game plan vs division rival NYG – by ground & by air.
    • The following are NYG weekly DEF average stats allowed to RB’s in 2020
      • 22 carries, 85 rush yards / 6 receptions, 50 rec yards
      • 7 total TD’s allowed to opposing RB’s – 4 rush / 3 rec
  • Justin Jackson vs LV – $4900
    • Although the LAC backfield seems like a headache to navigate on a weekly basis, I think that is where Jackson’s appeal comes into play this week. Coach Anthony Lynn said after Week 8 that rookie Joshua Kelly was “running timid” as of late.
    • That’s not exactly a glowing endorsement, but it’s a bit of a tell imo. Kelley was 3rd in RB snaps behind Jackson & Troymaine Pope vs DEN in Wk 8 (doubtful Week 9).
    • Jackson out touched Kelley (20-8) and out produced him in total yards (142-25) but snaps will be more balanced with Pope trending towards being ruled Out.
    • The following are LV weekly DEF average stats allowed to RB’s in 2020
      • 19 carries, 94 yards / 6 receptions, 55 rec yards
      • 9 total TD’s allowed to opposing RB’s – 8 rush / 1 rec

WR

  • Jerry Jeudy vs ATL – $4700
    • Last week vs LAC, Jeudy recorded a season high in targets (10) & receiving yards (73)
    • This shows that Drew Lock is getting more comfortable throwing to Jeudy and I expect that relationship to keep growing this week in ATL.
    • The following are ATL weekly DEF average stats allowed to WR’s in 2020
      • 14 receptions, 212 yards, 1.0 TD
      • 8 TD’s allowed to WR’s in 8 games
      • 15.27 yards per catch to WR’s
    • I’m predicting Jeudy to have his first 100+ yard game and score a TD. #ShipIt
  • Brandin Cooks vs JAX – $5500
    • Since the Texans made BOB walk the plank, Cooks has produced more like I originally expected when he joined HOU – I gave up on him after he laid an egg as my #SleeperValuePick in Week 4… But I’m ready to get hurt again *Michael Scott GIF* lol
    • Targets by week
      • Week 5: 12 for 8/161/1 — vs JAX **
      • Week 6: 9 for 9/68/1
      • Week 7: 9 for 7/60/0
    • Coming off a bye, this should be another big game vs the Jaguars DEF at home.
  • John Brown vs SEA – $4600
    • All of the hype in BUF this season has been the addition of Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley in the slot and the play of QB Josh Allen. Rightfully so. Coming off a 1,000+ yard season in his first year with BUF, John Brown is the forgotten man & he’s coming back from a knee injury so he’s even further off the radar – higher contrarian possibility.
    • Brown practiced in full on Thursday and is good to go.
    • The Seahawks are allowing an alarming 22 receptions, 269 yards (nice) and 1.5 TD’s per game to WR’s in 2020.

TE

  • Greg Olsen vs BUF – $3100
    • Believe it or not, Greg Olsen is 3rd on Seattle in Targets (28), although significantly behind Lockett (65) & Metcalf (58). Will Dissly (13) has roughly 50% snap share with Olsen over the last two weeks, but that is more due to Olsen nursing a foot injury than any skill related conflict.
    • Olsen is a TD dependent play in most formats but I’m loving his matchup vs BUF – the Bills have allowed big games this year to Mike Gesicki, Darren Waller, Jonnu Smith & Travis Kelce.
    • The following are BUF weekly DEF average stats allowed to TEs in 2020
      • 6 catches, 64 yards on 8 targets
      • 6 TD’s allowed to TE’s in 8 games

DEF

  • Arizona vs MIA – $2900
    • I usually don’t give advice on DEF.. but I’m avoiding the Dolphins offense like the plague rn.. so, this makes sense to me.
    • ARI has at least 3 sacks in 5/7 games this season
    • ARI has 6 INT’s & 2 FR’s over the last 4 weeks
    • Tua went 12/22 for 93 yards in his first start.. *whispers* I’m a non-believer
    • The Dolphins will be without Gaskin & Brieda, leaving Jordan Howard and Patrick Laird as the teams top backs.

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