Welcome to Week 13, Season 10, of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series! For those of you who are new to our series, we follow four simple steps to make our picks. While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past. We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to hit me up on Twitter to give me your thoughts!
Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups
Last week was a bit of a snore with only one division game, but that changes as we get into the final third of the season. If you’re still alive in your eliminator league, don’t get cute and remember what we have seen in division matchups earlier this year.
Every single year one of the top teams gets upset by an underdog division rival. The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen. Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding this week’s division matchups:
- Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
- Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
- Washington Commanders @ New York Giants
- Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams
- Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders
- New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups
One of the best parts of Thanksgiving weekend is a slate of five division games and last week they didn’t disappoint. Of all five games, the largest margin of victory was only eight points with even the Bills barely edging out the Lions by a field goal. All season long these games have continued to be highly entertaining and also slightly unpredictable, hence why this rule exists.
Prime time games are in prime time for a reason. Expect close games where the unexpected can happen. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid this week’s marquee games:
- Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
- Indianapolis Colts @ Dallas Cowboys
- New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage
Home-field advantage does exist! Otherwise, how can you explain the Cleveland Browns beating Tom Brady in Cleveland? How about the Ravens’ collapse in Jacksonville? Even the Panthers crushed Wilson and the Broncos in front of their home faithful. Last week was a great reminder why this rule exists and as the weather becomes a bigger factor in December, we should pay close attention here.
While home-field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with. Be aware of this week’s games where the favorite is the away team:
- Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
- Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons
- Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
- Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions
- Washington Commanders @ New York Giants
- Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans
- Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams
- Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals
- Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders
Step 4 – Make your pick!
My pick of the week is:
- Baltimore Ravens over the Denver Broncos
The Broncos seem to get worse and worse as the season wears on. On the other hand, the Ravens took a tough loss last weekend and I expect them to take their frustrations out on the Broncos this Sunday as they return to their home field. This game should show the difference between what an AFC playoff team looks like vs. a bottom dweller.
Other options I like this week:
- Dallas Cowboys over the Indianapolis Colts
While this is a prime-time game, it also should be a blowout. Dallas is one team that knows how to play in prime time, and if the Colts can’t beat a team like the Steelers in Indy, there is a very low probability they can beat the Cowboys in Dallas.
- Minnesota Vikings over the New York Jets
While the Jets have played well this season, there is still a lot of unknown at the quarterback position. However, the Vikings are coming off an extended rest, and Cousins playing at 1 pm is all I need to know to pick this game in Minnesota’s favor.
Last Week’s Record = 3-0
Season Record = 26-10
Follow me on Twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!
Thanks for reading!
