Welcome to Week 12, Season 10, of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series! For those of you who are new to our series, we follow four simple steps to make our picks. While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past. We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to hit me up on Twitter to give me your thoughts!
Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups
Last week was one of the best weeks of division matchups we have had in a long time. In New England, we saw a game decided by a punt return in the final seconds. In Los Angeles, we saw two touchdown drives in the final two minutes. Even in Denver, we saw the only overtime game of the week occur between two division matchups. Division games have not disappointed!
Every single year one of the top teams gets upset by an underdog division rival. The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen. Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding this week’s division matchups:
- New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups
One of the advantages of division matchups occurring in prime time is you get double the fun. As mentioned earlier, the Sunday night game between the Chiefs and Chargers had Justin Herbert leading a game-leading touchdown drive with less than two minutes left, only for Mahomes and Kelce to return the favor with a touchdown of their own with only 31 seconds remaining. Games don’t get much better than that!
Prime time games are in prime time for a reason. Expect close games where the unexpected can happen. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid this week’s marquee games:
- Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions
- New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
- New England Patriots @ Minnesota Vikings
- Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles
- Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage
Two weeks ago we saw all the home teams that were expected to lose come up with surprising upsets making us believe home-field advantage might be on a comeback. This past week that all went away as all the home teams expecting to lose, lost. Some of them such as Minnesota and Arizona not only lost in front of their home crowd but did so in an embarrassing fashion. Another week goes by and we still aren’t sure what to do with this rule, but we’ll continue to monitor as the season progresses.
While home-field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with. Be aware of this week’s games where the favorite is the away team:
- Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cleveland Browns
- Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans
- Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers
- Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- Los Angeles Chargers @ Arizona Cardinals
Step 4 – Make your pick!
My pick of the week is:
- Kansas City Chiefs over the Los Angeles Rams
Here is a tale of two teams. In Kansas City, you are watching a team with their sights on the AFC 1 seed in the playoffs and home-field advantage throughout. On the other side is a Rams team with a major Super Bowl hangover, mounting injuries, and a coach considering retirement. This Chiefs team looks determined to make a Super Bowl appearance this year and I don’t see the visiting Rams getting in their way.
Other options I like this week:
- Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins
With the Dolphins coming off a bye and hosting the one-win Texans, this should be a slam-dunk pick. However, the Texans have historically had the Dolphins’ number, so while on paper this looks like the no-brainer pick of the week, I’m being a bit cautious here and using it as an alternate selection.
- New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers were dominant against their division rivals on Monday night. While the Saints on the other hand barely beat a banged-up Rams team, seemingly desperate for this nightmare of a season to be over. While this may be closer than our top two selections, the 49ers should leave this game with one more notch in their win column.
Last Week’s Record = 2-1
Season Record = 23-10
Follow me on Twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!
Thanks for reading!
