Welcome to week seven, season ten, of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series! For those new to our series, we follow four simple steps to make our picks. While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past. We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to hit me up on Twitter to give me your thoughts!
Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups
While we only had four division matchups last week, we saw one go back and forth in Indy which was decided with only 17 seconds left and another went into overtime down in Los Angeles. As always, division matchups don’t disappoint and we will continue to avoid them!
Every single year one of the top teams gets upset by an underdog division rival. The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen. Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding this week’s division matchups:
- Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
- Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups
While the Sunday night game wasn’t exactly a thriller, we got a Thursday night game that came down to the final possession and a Monday night game that went into overtime. Two out of three isn’t half bad!
Prime time games are in prime time for a reason. Expect close games where the unexpected can happen. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid this week’s marquee games:
- New Orleans Saints @ Arizona Cardinals
- Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins
- Chicago Bears @ New England Patriots
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage
How about home-field advantage coming back with some massive upsets in Week 6. In Pittsburgh, we saw a Steelers team take two quarterbacks to beat Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. In Atlanta, we saw the Falcons run away with it against the 49ers, and in New York, the Giants continued their surprising 2022 campaign with a win against the Ravens. There were a lot of happy home fans across the league last Sunday!
While home-field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with. Be aware of this week’s games where the favorite is the away team:
- Green Bay Packers @ Washington Commanders
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
- Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers
Step 4 – Make your pick!
My pick of the week is:
- Cincinnati Bengals over the Atlanta Falcons
The Bengals are on a bit of a hot streak and are starting to look like the team we saw in the Super Bowl less than a year ago. The Falcons are coming off a big home game last weekend, but I worry about them gaining consistent success. I think the Bengals just have too much firepower in this one for the Falcons to keep pace.
Other options I like this week:
- Las Vegas Raiders over the Houston Texans
Not often do you pick a one-win team in an eliminator challenge, but we have slim pickings this week. The Raiders are playing at home and just have too much talent to match their record. On the other side is a Texans team that is rebuilding and better off losing than winning this one.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Carolina Panthers
Here’s a double rule breaker for the week as we really don’t have a ton of great options. Let’s be real, the Panthers are the worst team in football and the Buccaneers are coming off a shocking loss in Pittsburgh. Do you really think Tom Brady is losing two games in a row this weekend?
Last Week’s Record = 1-2
Season Record = 9-8
Follow me on Twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!
Thanks for reading!
