Welcome to Week 6, Season 10, of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series! For those of you who are new to our series, we follow four simple steps to make our picks. While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past. We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to hit me up on Twitter to give me your thoughts!
Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups
What a great week for division matchups. With the exception of the upset in New York, every other division game was decided by seven points or less with one game decided by two points and another by a single point. This is why I love division matchups, and why I avoid them like the plague.
Every single year one of the top teams gets upset by an underdog division rival. The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen. Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding this week’s division matchups:
- Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
- Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
- Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
- Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups
You can’t ask for a better prime time week when out of three games, the margin of defeat was three points on Thursday, two points on Sunday, and a single point on Monday night. You can’t ask for much closer than that, and it adds to our point of why we avoid these games.
Prime time games are in prime time for a reason. Expect close games where the unexpected can happen. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid this week’s marquee games:
- Washington Commanders @ Chicago Bears
- Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
- Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage
If it weren’t for missed last second field goals in both Cleveland and Arizona, there would have been a ton of home field upsets this past weekend, but instead the only real upset was up in New York which you could argue was more about being a division matchup than home field advantage.
While home field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with. Be aware of this week’s games where the favorite is the away team:
- San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
- Minnesota Vikings @ Miami Dolphins
- Cincinnati Bengals @ New Orleans Saints
- Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
- Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Step 4 – Make your pick!
My pick of the week is:
- Los Angeles Rams over the Carolina Panthers
The Rams are clearly not the team they were one year ago. That being said, they host a Panthers team that has already fired their coach only five weeks into the season. With the Panthers losing Baker for the game, if the Rams can’t beat this team at home, they may as well pack it up for the season.
Other options I like this week:
- Green Bay Packers over the New York Jets
As badly as the Rams need to beat the Panthers, the Packers are also in need of a win after their debacle in London. The Jets may be riding high after their big division win last weekend, but I expect them to come back down to earth when having to face a higher-caliber signal caller on the other side of the field.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Pittsburgh Steelers
While Tampa is on the road, the Steelers might be the worst team in football right now, and I don’t expect them to get much of a home-field advantage in this one. After everyone questioned the Bucs win last week with a phantom roughing the passer call to ice the game, I expect Brady to put a more convincing victory on the scoreboard this coming Sunday.
Last Week’s Record = 1-2
Season Record = 8-6
Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!
Thanks for reading!
