For Frequency Sake Fantasy Football NFL Eliminator Challenge – WEEK 5

NFL Eliminator Challenge – WEEK 5

NFL Eliminator Challenge – WEEK 5 post thumbnail image

Welcome to Week five, season ten, of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series! For those of you who are new to our series, we follow four simple steps to make our picks. While these are not hard rules (more like guidelines and suggestions), they have historically worked out well for us in the past. We are happy to have you join our eliminator community and feel free to hit me up on Twitter to give me your thoughts!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

Look no further than Las Vegas, NV for why we don’t pick division games.  The Raiders were the only 0-3 team in the league hosting the Broncos, who many thought were Super Bowl contenders after a massive off-season trade for Russell Wilson.  Yet here we are, one week later, and the Raiders are now 1-3.

Every single year one of the top teams gets upset by an underdog division rival. The problem is you never know when it’s going to happen.  Unless you can predict the future, I recommend avoiding this week’s division matchups:

  • Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
  • Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
  • Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
  • Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

Unfortunately, we hit our first dud of the prime time slate this past week. The Bengals won by two scores Thursday night after the Fins lost their QB1 to a devastating injury. What should have been a nail-biter Sunday night was fairly easily won by the Chiefs, and the Rams just flat-out didn’t show up to SF on Monday. Hopefully, we see a rebound in Week five!

Prime time games are in prime time for a reason. Expect close games where the unexpected can happen. Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid this week’s marquee games:

  • Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos
  • Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
  • Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

While home-field advantage seemed to disappear again in Week four, as Baltimore and Pittsburgh give away late leads to lose in front of their home crowd, we did see the Falcons finally end up on the right side of a comeback in front of the Atlanta faithful. Throw in some big home wins by Green Bay and Las Vegas and we aren’t giving up on home-field advantage just yet!

While home field advantage may not be what it used to be, the stress behind travel and being out of your comfort zone is still a real thing and something you should be careful with. Be aware of this week’s games where the favorite is the away team:

  • Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland Browns
  • Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
  • Tennessee Titans @ Washington Commanders
  • Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

  • Buffalo Bills over the Pittsburgh Steelers

The Buffalo Bills have put on a show this season with wins over the Rams, Titans, and Ravens. They are still favored by many to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this February, and this weekend they host a Steelers team that gave up a late lead to the NY Jets in front of the Pittsburgh faithful. Odds are Pittsburgh will be starting their rookie QB against the Bills’ vicious defense. This could get out of hand quickly.  

 Other options I like this week:

  • Green Bay Packers over the New York Giants

While the Packers have been far from dominant this season, they are 3-1 with wins over the Buccaneers and the Patriots. While this game takes place in London, I just don’t see Rodger’s struggles continuing any longer than they have. It’s time to take their frustrations out on a lower-quality opponent, even with this game taking place overseas, I expect a blowout.

  • Los Angeles Rams over the Dallas Cowboys

With not a lot of other great options this week, this is all about expecting teams to fall back to their means. The Cowboys are riding high on the wings of Cooper Rush, but how long is that really going to last? On the other side is a Rams team seemingly suffering from a Super Bowl hangover, but do you really think Aaron Donald and Sean McVay are going to let that last forever? This game feels like one where two ships get sent in the right direction.

Last Week’s Record = 2-1

Season Record = 7-4

Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

Thanks for reading!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Related Post