Week 4 Best Bets: Casino’s Make or Break Week

September 30, 2021

Can you feel that? Can you feel the excitement in the words that I am typing? This is what happens when you finally have a positive week betting NFL games! Weeks 1 and 2 were a disaster. Going a combined 2-6, while losing both mortal locks, was not a good look. I was just waiting for the call from DJ and the gang asking me to stop losing their faithful readers money. But alas, Week 3 happens, and we somewhat righted the ship! 

Overall, it was a very successful week for myself. Going 3-1 against the spread (while also sprinkling some money on the ML for both the Vikings and the Rams) to help with the bankroll. Now we just need to keep the positive momentum moving forward for the rest of the season! Let’s get to the recap.

Week 3 Results

Tennessee TItans (-5, – 110) vs the Indianapolis Colts – (Titans win 26 – 15)

This pick was made with the thought that Carson Wentz couldn’t possibly play on two sprained ankles. But, much to my surprise, Wentz played, and maybe he shouldn’t have. A not very good Titans defense held the Colts to under 300 total yards for the game and the Titans won this one easily. 

Los Angeles Rams (+1.5, – 110) vs the Tampa Bay Buccaneers – (Rams win 34-24)

Tom Brady had a lot going against him in this game. Traveling across the country, playing a terrific Rams defense, first game in Los Angeles. Although the Bucs outgained the Rams 446 – 407, the Rams were the one that come out on top and look like a true Super Bowl Contending Team in the NFC. 

Minnesota Vikings (+1.5, -110) against the Seattle Seahawks – (Vikings win 30-17) 

Well, well, well, lots of people were on the Seahawks for this game. They couldn’t smell the rat line here. Kirk Cousins and the Vikings have played well, but have lost in heartbreaking fashion in both Week 1 and Week 2. Seattle on the other hand has looked good at times, but very inconsistent. The Vikings, behind Alexander Mattison’s dominant week, beat the Seahawks and finally get in the win column for the 2021 Season. 

Lock of the Week – New England Patriots (-2.5, -115) against the New Orleans Saints (Saints win 28-13) 

The lock of the week is broken, shattered, beat to little pieces. Another week, another loss for the lock of the week. New Orleans has been very unpredictable this week and just love to win when I bet against them for my lock of the week. The Patriots offensive line looked terrible and led to a very poor offensive showing. Here’s to hoping we can find a lock that actually works this week! 

Week 4 Card

What a week we have to come! We start with a terrible Thursday night matchup between the Jaguars and the Bengals, which will still outdraw all other TV shows that night, again proving the NFL is king. 

Early in the season, there are quite a few surprises. Did anyone have the Panthers being 3-0? How about the Cardinals? Nobody had the Broncos at 3-0…

How about the Chiefs? Did anyone peg them to be 1-2 to start the season? I know DJ didn’t. 

Biggest Matchup of the week: (3-0) Arizona Cardinals vs the (3-0) Los Angeles Rams….You know what, never mind. It’s obviously Tom Brady returning to Foxboro to face the franchise that made Tom Brady. 

As a quick note, when looking at where the money is going early in the week, Vegas Casinos are either going to have a GREAT week, or they will lose a lot of money. Early action is very one-sided and has not moved the numbers all that much. And if I’ve learned anything when sports betting, Vegas rarely has a bad weekend. We’ll see! 

What a week! Let’s get to the picks: 

(All picks are current on the Draftkings Sportsbook as of Wednesday Morning) 

Chicago Bears (-3) vs the Detroit Lions

I’m going to be honest here Bears fans, last week was brutal to watch. Matt Nagy has taken the brunt of the blame, but the offensive line did not do much to protect Justin Fields. Everyone and I mean everyone, is on the Detroit Lions this week, but this is a perfect time to zig, while others are zagging. Matt Nagy might be coaching for his job, and I firmly believe he will have the Bears ready to go against Dan Campbell’s Detroit Lions. 

Indianapolis Colts (+2) over the Miami Dolphins

Tim, didn’t you just say the Colts offense looked terrible last week? Is Carson Wentz 100% or does he still have two sprained ankles? The Colts have not shown much early in the season, but then again, neither have the Dolphins. Jacoby Brissett is likely to start again for the Dolphins and as long as that is the case, I will be picking against them. The Dolphins offense is not very good with Tua, I don’t believe Jacoby can lead them to a victory. Take the Colts and the points. 

Denver Broncos (-1) vs the Baltimore Ravens

How many of you read that and said, HUH?? The Broncos are favored against the Ravens? I did too. When a line looks that fishy, it’s almost tough to bet against it. The Broncos are 3-0 to start the season (also 3-0 against the spread). Yes, I know the Broncos have played the Giants, the Jags, and the Jets, but Baltimore struggled against a mediocre Lions defense and will have issues playing against a tough Denver D. 

Lock of the Week 

Los Angeles Rams (-4) vs the Arizona Cardinals 

Battle for the NFC West. Both the Rams and the Cardinals come into this game 3-0, and I wanted to take the over so badly, but the Cardinals have already hurt me twice this season when taking their over. (Week 1 against the Titans, and Week 3 against the Jags. Lost by a combined 4 points). The Rams have been a dominant team to start the season and look to flex their muscles again on Sunday, give me the Rams and the points against the feisty Cardinals.

Let’s hope the positive momentum continues! 

Best of luck! 

Tim