For Frequency Sake Fantasy Football Bargain Bin: Cowboys WR Michael Gallup

Bargain Bin: Cowboys WR Michael Gallup

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After ending the season as WR40, Dallas Cowboys wideout Michael Gallup is the perfect buy-low candidate.

While everyone is still high on Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, Gallup provides plenty of value. Cooper and Lamb are both expensive, and rightfully so.

But, Gallup is definitely the cheapest to buy at this position for the Cowboys.

Cooper, Gallup and Lamb each had three 20-point games this year. It has been a crazy year for the Cowboys wide receivers, but somehow it seems as if Gallup is the only wide receiver whose value has dropped. In dynasty, you can probably buy him for a 2021 2nd round pick in a lot of leagues. If you’re looking for a breakout candidate for next year, he might be worth that pick. 

With Andy Dalton under center, Gallup has seen almost an equal target share alongside CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper. Gallup is obviously known as the boom-or-bust option of the Cowboy’s wide receivers, but his boom potential is massive. In games in which Gallup has seen eight or more targets since 2019, he has averaged 18.3 fantasy points. Cooper, over that same span, averaged 19.5 fantasy points per game when he saw eight or more targets. 

Red Zone Usage

In 2019 with Dak under center, Gallup saw a respectable target share in the red zone. He saw eight targets in the red zone, turning that into four catches and two touchdowns. In 2020 with Dalton under center, those numbers dropped drastically. He caught just one of five targets, resulting in six yards in the red zone for the season. The whole team saw a drop in red zone percentage as well. Dallas dropped from 16th in red zone touchdown percentage in 2019 (57.41%) to 29th in 2020 (50.0%). Increased red zone usage will be huge for Gallup’s growth, and I expect him to have a much better year in the red zone in 2021.

The most glaring numbers that you can look forward to improving for Gallup in 2021 are his catchable target rate (CTR) and target quality rating (TQR). In 2019, when Gallup was WR22 in fantasy football, he had a CTR of 82.1% (#23 among WRs), and a TQR of 7.1 (#12 among WRs). With Dalton under center in 2020, his CTR dropped to 64.3% (#100 among WRs), and his TQR dropped to 4.3 (#99 among WRs). Gallup simply isn’t being thrown nearly as many catchable balls. And this is all while he has increased his target separation by almost a half-yard on targets in 2020 compared to 2019. 

With the return of a healthy Dak Prescott in 2021, Michael Gallup is sure to bounce back to his 2019 form, and could be better. While the arrival of CeeDee Lamb will hurt his target share, there is plenty of offense to go around in Dallas. I expect Gallup to be a top 24 wide receiver in fantasy in 2021.

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