NFL DFS – Week 15 #SleeperValuePicks

December 19, 2020

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#SleeperValuePicks – all under $6k on Draftkings – are meant to supplement your lineups (hence “sleeper value” picks) & are not meant to be full lineups on their own.

QB

  • Jalen Hurts @ ARI $5800
    • Hurts’ debut as the Eagles starter was pretty spectacular.
      • 18 carries, 106 yards
      • 17/30 for 167 yards, 1-0 (td/int)
    • In what should be a very fast-paced game between two exciting young QBs, Hurts should perform at value 3x his cost and save you plenty of money for the rest of your lineup.
    • The following are ARI weekly DEF average stats allowed to QB’s
      • 23/36 for 245 yards
      • 21 TD’s to opposing QB’s in 13 games – 19 pass / 2 rush
      • 19.15 FPPG
      • 10 interceptions & 3 fumbles recovered

My top $$$ QB of the week:

Josh Allen vs DEN – $7200 (Saturday)

Tom Brady vs ATL – $6600

Play JK Dobbins this weekend

RB

  • JK Dobbins vs JAX – $5900
    • After the Ravens bye week in Wk 7, Dobbins role has grown substantially. Although, he is not involved in the passing game as much as anyone would’ve hoped.
    • Dobbins has scored in 3 straight games and I expect him to score at least once vs JAX.
      • Last 4 weeks
        • Week 11: 15 / 70 / 1 = 18.5 points
        • Week 12: Out – COVID
        • Week 13: 11 / 71 / 1 = 13.1 points
        • Week 14: 13 / 53 / 1 = 13.3 points
    • JAX rank 30th in rushing yards allowed with 145.5 ypg
    • The following are JAX weekly DEF average stats allowed to RB’s
      • 18 carries, 118 yards (4.54 avg) / 6 receptions, 46 rec yards
      • 15 TD’s to opposing RB’s – 12 rush / 3 rec
      • 21.77 FPPG
  • Melvin Gordon vs BUF – $5200 (Saturday)
    • Gordon has led this backfield for better or worse, and I actually value him slightly higher than most (I think). In a game that should see DEN trailing, look for Gordon to secure 2-3 receptions as well.
    • He’s had a few duds thus far. Those were all games that DEN fell way behind & in 2 of those games they were w/out Drew Lock.
    • Lock is now healthy, coming off a great game vs the Panthers & BUF ranks 20th in the league in rushing ypg with 119.9.
    • The following are BUF weekly DEF average stats allowed to RB’s
      • 22 carries, 98 rush yards (4.43 avg) / 5 receptions, 36 rec yards
      • 11 TD’s to opposing RB’s – 10 rush / 1 rec
      • 16.92 FPPG

My top $$$ RB of the week:

Derrick Henry @ DET – $9500

Alvin Kamara vs KC – $7400

Jonathon Taylor vs HOU – $7200

WR

  • Keke Coutee vs IND – $5300
    • Week 13, Coutee DOMINATED the IND secondary to the tune of 8/141/0 = 25.1 points (9 targets)
    • Coutee followed that up last week with 3/24/1 vs the Bears.
    • The fact that Will Fuller is suspended, Cobb is out and the Texans are pretty terrible as a team… Watson will be forced to throw and he seems to have great chemistry with Keke going back to last year.
    • The following are IND weekly DEF average stats allowed to WR’s
      • 12 receptions, 168 yards (14.31 avg), 0.85 TD’s
      • 11 TD’s allowed to WR’s in 13 games
      • 20.62 FPPG
  • DJ Moore vs GB $5200 (Saturday)
    • DJ Moore hasn’t played since Week 12. With 13 being CAR’s bye and having a COVID absence last week.
    • Prior to that absence, Moore has seeing a ton of targets and GB’s Jaire Alexander is set to shadow Robby Anderson.
      • Week 10: 4/96/1 (7 targets)
      • Week 11: 7/127/0 (11)
      • Week 12: 4/61/0 (9)
    • The following are GB weekly DEF average stats allowed to WR’s
      • 12 receptions, 147 yards (12.29 avg), 1.00 TD’s
      • 13 TD’s allowed to WR’s in 13 games
      • 20.31 FPPG
  • Russell Gage vs TB – $4700
    • With Julio Jones being ruled out, Gage will serve as the ATL’s WR2 once again. In these situations when Julio is out Gage tends to be rather useful from a fantasy perspective. Should see 7-10 targets.
    • Gage’s last 4 games
      • Week 11: 7/58/0 (11 targets)
      • Week 12: 3/34/0 (5)
      • Week 13: 4/51/1 (8)
      • Week 14: 5/82/0 (7)
    • The following are TB weekly DEF average stats allowed to WR’s
      • 14 receptions, 175 yards (12.12 avg), 1.08 TD’s
      • 14 TD’s allowed to WR’s in 13 games
      • 23.46 FPPG
  • Jalen Reagor vs ARI – $4400
    • As a cheap stack option with Hurts as your QB, all it would take is one big play to make this stack pay off $$$.
    • Reagor avg’s 5 targets in his last 5 games and has receptions of 55, 39, 34 yards & a 73 yard punt ret-TD on the season.
    • Big play waiting to happen & I anticipate this is the week it hits.
    • The following are ARI weekly DEF average stats allowed to WR’s
      • 15 receptions, 168 yards (11.24 avg), 1.00 TD’s
      • 13 TD’s allowed to WR’s in 13 games
      • 22.15 FPPG
  • Michael Gallup vs SF – $3500
    • Andy Dalton is the type of QB that finds his favorite targets and hammers them with targets. In DAL those guys are Amari Cooper & Michael Gallup.
    • Richard Sherman should see Amari Cooper most of the time on the right side of the field (Gallup – LWR on 51% of snaps) and this matches Gallup vs Jason Verrett (70% completion against).
    • Targets by week
      • Week 12: 6/41/0 (8 targets)
      • Week 13: 7/86/1 (11)
      • Week 14: 2/23 (6)
    • I expect Gallup in the 7-9 target range with TD potential in his plus matchup against 49ers LCB Verrett.
    • The following are SF weekly DEF average stats allowed to WR’s
      • 13 receptions, 153 yards, 1.15 TD’s
      • 15 TD’s to WR’s in 13 games
      • 21.62 FPPG

My top $$$ WR of the week:

Davante Adams vs CAR – $9400

DeAndre Hopkins vs PHI – $7900

Allen Robinson II vs MIN $7400

Brandon Aiyuk vs DAL – $6300

Chris Godwin vs ATL – $6200

TE

  • Jared Cook vs KC – $3400
    • Cook went extinct for the first 3 weeks of the Taysom Hill era, but he has come back to life with TD’s the last two games.
      • Week 13: 3/28/1 (5 targets)
      • Week 14: 3/37/1 (4)
    • With Michael Thomas a surprise inactive & Drew Brees set to return vs KC – Cook should find himself in the 5-7 target range.
    • Jared Cook is always a red-zone threat but that threat increases with Thomas out.
    • The following are KC weekly DEF average stats allowed to TE’s
      • 5 catches, 60 yards / avg of 8 targets
      • 7 TD’s allowed to TE’s in 13 games
      • 9.08 FPPG

Dart throw TE of the week:

Tyler Conklin vs CHI – $2500

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