NFL DFS – Week 14 #SleeperValuePicks

December 12, 2020

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These suggestions – all under $6k – are meant to help supplement your lineups (hence “sleeper value” picks) and are not meant to be full lineups on their own.

QB

  • Mike Glennon vs TEN – $5100
    • The value in owning Mike Glennon is most DFS players believe he’s terrible so his ownership percentage should be abysmal, although in this juicy matchup that may vary from the norm slightly.
    • Still, Glennon should produce that 3x money spent value that you are hoping for and save you money to stack two big RB’s or a few WR’s you love this week.
    • The following are TEN weekly DEF average stats allowed to QB’s in 2020
      • 26/39 (67%) for 283 passing yards & 2.25 TD/game
      • Allowed total of 27 passing TD’s and 11 INT’s

RB

  • Jonathon Taylor vs LV – $5800
    • JT for the same price as last week after putting up 22.5?? vs the Raiders? Sign me up!
    • Although his usage scared those bold enough to use Taylor last week, his production sure bailed us out. However, I believe that was more due to him coming off the Covid list and getting him back involved slowly. But I think the trend is showing that the game is slowing down for him, he’s finally seeing holes and hitting them. Plus, with Rivers at the helm, you can guarantee a few receptions.
    • JT’s last two games played
      • Week 11 vs GB: 22 car, 90 yards – 4 rec, 24 yards
      • Week 13 vs HOU: 13 car, 91 yards – 3 rec, 44 yards & 1 TD
    • The following are LV weekly DEF average stats allowed to RB’s in 2020
      • 21 carries, 101 rush yards (4.71 avg) / 5 receptions, 43 rec yards
      • 16 total TD’s allowed to opposing RB’s – 14 rush / 2 rec
  • Tony Pollard vs CIN – $5300
    • The Bengals have allowed 100+ yards rushing in 4 of their last 5 games and 8 times total in 2020.
    • Zeke Elliot should have himself a nice game in his return to Ohio, but I expect Pollard to get 12-15 touches and potentially a score as Dallas *should* control this game vs the Brandon Allen led Bengals.
    • The following are CIN weekly DEF average stats allowed to RB’s in 2020
      • 24 carries, 119 rush yards (5.00 avg) / 4 receptions, 31 rec yards
      • 9 total TD’s allowed to opposing RB’s – 7 rush / 2 rec

WR

  • DJ Chark vs TEN – $5300
    • I’ve been off by one week several times with my WR picks this season and I’ve never gone back to back with any of my WR’s, until now. Coming off an injury last week, Chark drew 7 targets but was only able to turn that into 2/41. I expect him to see 7-10 targets & have more of a 6/90/1 type of day – maybe even bigger.
    • During their Week 2 contest, Chark was targeted 4 times by Minshew for 4/84/0
    • TEN has allowed 300+ yards passing 5 times this season, including 339 to Minshew in Week 2.
    • The following are TEN weekly DEF average stats allowed to WR’s in 2020
      • 27 rec, 142 rush yards (5.25 avg) / 5 receptions, 44 rec yards
      • 15 total TD’s allowed to opposing RB’s – 14 rush / 1 rec
  • CeeDee Lamb vs CIN – $4800
    • In Andy Dalton’s revenge game (@ Paul Brown Stadium – no less), I think Dallas is going to play inspired for Andy and beat the battered Bengals. There will be about 12,000 fans there if I’m not mistaken and they will be cheering for Andy Dalton and rev him up at the start of the game.
    • CeeDee Lamb has lined up in the slot on a staggering 93% of his snaps this season, pitting him against SLCB Mackenzie Alexander for CIN. Alexander has allowed a completion percentage of 72% when targeted on the season so I believe Lamb will exploit Alexander and have a blow-up game.
    • The following are CIN weekly DEF average stats allowed to WR’s in 2020
      • 13 rec, 162 rec yards per game
      • 14 TD’s allowed to opposing WR’s in 12 games
  • Nelson Agholor vs IND – $4700
    • Nelson Agholor has been one of the biggest surprises in 2020 fantasy football. Now, he hasn’t done *that* much, but after his falling out in PHI only to get paired with Derek Carr?! He doubles his production, so 2020.
    • Over the last 3 weeks
      • Week 11: 6/88/1 (9 targets)
      • Week 12: 5/54/0 (6)
      • Week 13: 4/38/0 (11)
      • 26 total targets in 3 games, looks to be on the cusp of another semi-big one.
    • The following are IND weekly DEF average stats allowed to WR’s in 2020
      • 12 rec, 170 rec yards
      • 10 TD’s allowed to opposing WR’s in 12 games
  • Darnell Mooney vs HOU – $3500
    • Mitch Trubisky might have actually saved Mooney’s fantasy relevance for the stretch run here.
    • Over the last two games Mooney has seen 15 targets. That has translated into
    • The following are HOU weekly DEF average stats allowed to WR’s in 2020
      • 14 rec, 167 rec yards
      • 16 TD’s allowed to opposing WR’s in 12 games

TE

  • Eric Ebron vs BUF – $4600
    • This game displays two of the more pass happy teams in the league right now, and while BUF does a decent job vs WR’s, they struggle immensely vs TE’s.
    • Ebron has been a focal point in PIT’s passing attack as of late, drawing 11 targets in back to back games
      • Week 12: 7/54/0
      • Week 13: 7/68/0
      • 22 total targets
    • Obviously, if Ebron scores a TD we should have a boom week in this matchup.
    • The following are BUF weekly DEF average stats allowed to TE’s in 2020
      • 6 rec, 67 rec yards on 8 targets / game
      • 7 TD’s allowed to TE’s in 12 games