NFL DFS – Week 13 #SleeperValuePicks

December 5, 2020

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These suggestions – all under $6k – are meant to help you complete your lineups (hence “sleeper value” picks) and are not meant to be full lineups on their own.

QB

  • Jared Goff vs ARI – $5800
    • The Rams passing game flies under the radar most of the time, but in the right matchups it is quite potent.
    • Arizona, for example, is one of those matchups where Goff & Co. flourish.
    • Goff vs ARI in 2019
      • 12/1/2019: 32/43 for 424 yards – 2 TD & 0 int
      • 12/29/2019: 29/45 for 319 yards – 3 TD & 0 int
      • Totals: 61/88 (69% – nice) for 743 yards – 5 TD & 0 int

RB

  • Jonathon Taylor vs HOU – $5700
    • Coming off his Covid designation (his GF had it, so he was just a close contact) I expect Taylor to return to bell cow duties like in Week 11 vs GB.
    • In his Week 12 absence, Wilkins & Hines didn’t do much & the week before Taylor went on the Covid list he had – 22 carries, 90 yards & 4/24 through the air.
    • The following are HOU weekly DEF average stats allowed to RB’s in 2020
      • 27 carries, 142 rush yards (5.25 avg) / 5 receptions, 44 rec yards
      • 15 total TD’s allowed to opposing RB’s – 14 rush / 1 rec
  • Damien Harris vs LAC – $5200
    • The NE backfield is never a certainty, but Harris has established himself as the lead back and is the most likely Patriot RB to score a TD (aside from Cam Newton of course)
    • Harris is limited to an almost exclusive role as a ball carrier, having just 1 reception on the season. This limits his upside, but I feel confident that he will produce vs LAC. Belichick is not going to let Herbert light up the scoreboard and will probably control the pace of the game by pounding the ball.
    • 2020 season to date (8 games)
      • 110 carries, 561 yards, 2 TD (5.1 avg)
      • 100 yard games – 3x
      • 4 out of 8 games with double digit fantasy points
      • double digit carries in every game played

WR

  • Robert Woods vs ARI – $5900
    • In 2019, Woods DOMINATED the ARI secondary – see Goff above
      • 12/1/2019: 13/172/0 (18 targets)
      • 12/29/2019: 7/67/1 (12 targets)
      • 30 total targets in two games vs ARI in 2019
    • 27 targets over the last two games
      • 19/210/1 totals
    • The following are ARI weekly DEF average stats allowed to WR’s in 2020
      • 15 receptions, 170 yards, 1.18 TD
      • 13 TD’s allowed to WR’s in 11 games
  • DJ Chark vs MIN – $5400
    • No injury designation heading into Sunday (ribs)
    • Glennon proved to be a competent enough QB without Chark as his top target. Now that Chark returns I expect a similar line to the 4/96/1 line that Collin Johnson put up last week with Glennon at the helm.
    • The following are MIN weekly DEF average stats allowed to WR’s in 2020
      • 14 receptions, 182 yards, 1.64 TD
      • 18 TD’s allowed to WR’s in 11 games !!!
      • 13.29 yards per catch to WR’s
  • Corey Davis vs CLE – $5100
    • Davis has proven to have one of the safest floors in all of 2020 for the WR position.
      • only one game under 10 fantasy points (vs CHI had 0 catches on 3 targets)
    • Playing against a CLE team that just allowed 235 passing yards & 2 TD’s to Mike Glennon.. I think Davis is primed for another double digit fantasy day. My guy Tannehill doesn’t get respect and with Jonnu Davis already ruled out, this should create a few more opportunities for Corey Davis.
    • If Denzel Ward does indeed play (sat out last week) he should shadow AJ Brown or lineup against him a majority, creating an even better potential outcome for Davis.
    • The following are CLE weekly DEF average stats allowed to WR’s in 2020
      • 14 receptions, 170 yards, 1.18 TD
      • 13 TD’s allowed to WR’s in 11 games
  • Michael Pittman Jr vs HOU – $4900
    • Even though last week Pittman was a bit of a let down, over the last 4 games he has become one of Phillip Rivers favorite targets and provides the big body/catch radius that Rivers has always been privy too.
    • Targets by week
      • Week 9: 7 targets – 4/56/0
      • Week 10: 8 targets – 7/101/0
      • Week 11: 3 targets – 3/66/1
      • Week 12: 9 targets – 2/28/0
    • I think we can reasonably expect a bounce back game from Pittman vs this vulnerable Houston DEF
    • The following are HOU weekly DEF average stats allowed to WR’s in 2020
      • 14 receptions, 167 yards, 1.36 TD
      • 15 TD’s allowed to WR’s in 11 games
  • Denzel Mims vs LV – $4100
    • Mims has come on strong in the second half, it would be fun to know where he would be right now in this stacked rookie class if he never got hurt this summer.
    • Gase seems to be funneling the ball to Mims – perhaps in an attempt to prove he’s not entirely inept?
    • Targets by week
      • Week 9: 8 targets – 4/62/0
      • Week 10: BYE
      • Week 11: 7 targets – 3/71/0
      • Week 12: 8 targets – 4/67/0
    • I would like to think that Mims will eventually get in the end zone and break past the 4/67 marks, and I believe in this matchup with the Raiders presents the perfect boom opportunity.
    • The following are CLE weekly DEF average stats allowed to WR’s in 2020
      • 13 receptions, 172 yards, 1.09 TD
      • 12 TD’s allowed to WR’s in 11 games
  • Jaylen Guyton vs NE – $3100
    • Very risky play at face value, but what else do you expect for $3100? If you want to jam as many high dollar guys into your lineup as possible and need a potential home run guy, I’d ride with Guyton vs NE.
    • Belichick will take away what LAC does best, so Keenan Allen will be shadowed by Gillmore.
    • Last week vs BUF, Guyton’s playing time & target share mirrored Mike Williams. I could see that trend continuing with the Gilmore/Allen matchup this weekend.
      • Williams played 67 snaps / Guyton 63 snaps
      • Williams & Guyton both had 3 receptions
    • Herbert looks for Guyton down the field (18/331/3), so it would only take one or two receptions for Guyton to pay off for you at his price tag.
    • Worth a dart throw if you’re desperate for a cheap option.

TE

  • Robert Tonyan vs PHI – $3700
    • Obviously, A. Frikser is a great option at $2500, I like him a lot, but trying to give you something different.
    • The Eagles defense hasn’t been bad against the TE position, per se, aside from George Kittle’s 15/183/1 Week 4 assault. However, with the presence of healthy DaVante Adams & Aaron Jones.. I think the attention will be elsewhere & Tonyan will capitalize.
    • While multiple TE’s play in this offense, Tonyan has a significant role in the passing game compared to the others. Sternberger only produced when Tonyan’s ankle was gimpy and Marcedes Lewis is merely a red-zone vulture.
      • Tonyan played 58% of GB’s TE snaps last week and has played 61.4% on the season.
      • Tonyan has 43 or the 76 TE targets, resulting in 56% target share for TE’s.
      • However, he has a remarkable 86% completion percent when targeted
        • converting 43 targets into 37/458/7
    • The following are PHI weekly DEF average stats allowed to TEs in 2020
      • 5 catches, 50 yards on avg of 7 targets
      • 6 TD’s allowed to TE’s in 11 games

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