Bet on That – Week 11

November 21, 2020

Seattle without a running game and that horrid defense is a disaster. But, with that being the only loss of the week, I am now at 18-12 on the season. Got a bit of a streak going, so hopefully I can keep getting a couple right each week!

LOCK PICK OF THE WEEK

Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at Denver Broncos

Denver’s three wins this season have come against the Jets, Chargers, and Patriots who have a combined record of 6-21 so far this season. Worst yet, they did not blow any of these teams out. They are right there at the bottom of the NFL in terms of efficiency. To make matters worse, their starting QB is hurting and will likely try to play.

Miami on the other hand, has a very good chance to play for a division title. Their schedule is pretty favorable starting with this weekend against the Broncos. They are on a five-game winning streak and really do not have much to fear until they meet the Chiefs in Week 13. Tua is getting stronger each week and looking very comfortable. He has an not thrown an interception in his first three games, which you would not expect from a rookie. Miami’s defense and special teams are also playing out of their mind right now. They are only allowing 20.2 points per game which ranks 5th in the league. The Broncos currently are allowing 28.2 per game. Miami is also tops in turnovers in the league at +5 differential on the season vs. Denver’s -12 differential.

Some might give the Broncos a few points for home-field advantage however, statistics have shown that prior to this last week, the road teams have won more games than the home team. Fans are ultimately what makes a home-field advantage an advantage, at least according to the numbers this season. With that said, I do think Tua will have a hard tie adjusting to the elevation change, as he has never played in Denver…but I expect his coaching staff to do their part and adjust their game plan accordingly. I still think the Dolphins win by a minimum of 10 points.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

Atlanta Falcons (+5) at New Orleans Saints

This one is all about Drew Brees not being in the lineup for the Saints.

The Falcons are doing the same exact thing they did last season where they started off horrible and started putting things together mid-season to end up being one of the best teams in the league for the second half. They are coming off of a bye, so their receivers who have all been dealing with injuries should come back healthy as they have been all season. I think they take advantage of Jameis Winston on defense and pick him off once or twice which will ultimately keep them in the game and cover the five-point spread.

GAME OF THE WEEK

Indianapolis Colts (+2) vs Green Bay Packers

There are some big games on the schedule this week, but this one seems to bear the most weight with two division leaders squaring off against each other.

The Packers struggle against teams that play good defense. They lost to the Vikings (who have been playing much better on defense in the last few weeks), Bucs, and then played a close game against the Saints. The Colts are a Top 5 defense who are +4 in turnover differential on the season with 13 turnovers in nine games. They allow the least amount of yards per game in the NFL, so I expect the Packers to struggle a bit on offense similar to when they played the Bucs in week 5. When Rodgers is frustrated, he tends to back off rather than use it to get back into the game.

The Colts are putting things together on offense all of the sudden. They beat the Titans last week and were able to shut Derrick Henry down for the most part. Indianapolis is very good at taking away an opponent’s strength to make them try to beat you with Plan B. I just think that the defense for Indianapolis will keep them in the game and will likely take this one down to the wire which is why I like taking the points in this one.