16-11 for the season…things are starting to fall into place and some trends are easier to spot now that we are halfway through the season.
The Cardinals should have won their game, but that Dolphins defense is for real! Tua will help them stay in games, but I have not seen anything yet to tell me he can beat an elite NFL defense, so I will likely go against the Dolphins again before the season is over.
Saints covered easily. Way too easily…this was a weird game and I am still not sure what really happened to the Bucs offense on Sunday night. But at least I was on the right side of the spread.
Raiders survived a close one at the end. It seems to be the same story each week for the Raiders as well as the Chargers. Again, I am happy I ended up on the right side for this one too 😉. Week 10 is just around the corner and I am not waiting for Sunday to pick my lock…
LOCK PICK OF THE WEEK
Indianapolis Colts (-1) @ Tennessee Titans
I thought that Tennessee was overrated all season and I continue to think that. I love Derrick Henry, but that is about where my love for the Titans stops. The Colts were predicted to win the division, and I think that conversation takes a step in that direction Thursday. The Colts played really well in the first half against a playoff team (Ravens) last week. The Ravens have one of the Top 5 defenses in the league, and if it were not for a Jonathan Taylor fumble that ended up in a scoop and score for the Ravens, it was likely the Colts were going to go into halftime with a 14-7 lead. Instead, the game went the other direction and Indianapolis was unable to recover. As someone who put money on the Ravens, I was scared until midway through the 3rd quarter. Now they get the Titans, who don’t have nearly as good a defense as the Ravens. I expect the Colts to do what they did in the 1st half against the Ravens on Thursday.
The Colts are also 4-4 against the spread this season and have covered the last 13 of 17 games they have played the Titans. Tennessee likes to play close games and is currently 3-5 against the spread. Another nugget that supports Indy on Thursday is that they are 5-0-1 under Frank Reich following a double-digit loss at home.
With the Colts having a Top 5 run defense, they should limit Henry to a respectable stat, and they are not bad against the pass either. I think the Colts win by a score.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
New York Giants (+3) vs Philadelphia Eagles
Another NFC East game that will likely end up in a low score. The Giants nearly beat the Eagles earlier this season but came up just short 22-21. I took the Giants then, and I am taking them again. They are playing like a team that wants to win. The Eagles are just too banged up to be who they want to be. I don’t see much that has changed from the first time they played other than Philadelphia does not have Zack Ertz or Desean Jackson to throw to.
Daniel Jones is learning a lot this season and has progressively improved. He is prone to the big turnover at any given time, but I feel like this is something he can work on, and I do not see the Philly defense doing much to make that turnover happen. I think Jones beats them with his feet, which will open up the downfield pass attack, and the Giants win this one outright by a FG.
GAME OF THE WEEK
Seattle Seahawks (+2) at Los Angeles Rams
Seattle is the worst team in NFL history (by a long shot) at defending the pass. They love to have shootouts with teams that are unable to run the ball. The Rams have a lot of weapons and I think they will definitely put up numbers. I just think Seattle will be able to put up more. Chris Carson is expected to play, which will allow Seattle to have a multi-dimensional offense, something they did not have last week against Buffalo. The main reason I am looking to Seattle in this game though, is based on the teams each has played. Seattle beat Miami. Los Angeles lost to Miami. The wins for the Rams are against the entire NFC East (puke) and the Bears. The Seahawks lost to the Cardinals and the Bills. They were shorthanded against the Bills, and they were robbed in the Cardinals game. They won twice and both times, the officials took it away from them.
In the end, I like the potential MVP of the league to carve up the Rams defense. I like Chris Carson to have a big game and the Seahawks to win a game that gets into the 40 point range for both teams! I think this one will come down to coaching, and I think Pete Carroll will win the game on a crazy play.