DFS Ice and Fire: Week 6 picks

October 17, 2020

Who loves them some DraftKings? Chase Edmonds highlighted my picks last week but it was not without it’s blemishes. But the past is the past and Week 6 is upon us. Here we go!

All values are subject to DraftKings’ prices and scoring format. All ownership data is courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator.

Fire em’ up

Cam Newton vs. DEN ($6,500)

COVID-19 can’t keep Newton down for long. Barring an unexpected postponement once more (the Patriots did have one undisclosed positive COVID-19 case on Friday) Newton should be owned in all DFS lineups. He isn’t projected to have a high ownership and provides immense upside with his rushing ability, particularly on the goal line. Denver has been good at one thing this season, and that’s at defending the run. Newton should succeed through the air with the upside of designed goal line rushes.

Aaron Jones @ TB ($7,600)

Pricey, I know. But Jones is somehow not projected to be a highly owned DFS option, but he carries the highest upside imaginable. Jones will continue to catch plenty of passes as the true No. 2 option for Aaron Rodgers — don’t @ me. The case for Jones’ production does not need to be made. With a big matchup against Tampa Bay on deck, Jones should be heavily involved in the game plan. Worth every penny.

Marvin Jones Jr. @ JAX ($5,100)

He’s still on the field. The Jaguars still struggle to cover the wide receiver. And Jones has yet to have his random three-touchdown game.

Right?

Kenny Golladay is the option every DFS owner wants (21.1 percent projected ownership) so why not take a shot on his partner in crime? We have seen how high Jones’ ceiling is and while he’s looked poor this season, this matchup after the bye is a perfect bounce back opportunity.

Mark Andrews @ PHI ($6,500)

Sometimes, you just have to pay up. That’s the case here for Andrews, who faces one of the worst linebacking corps in the league. The Baltimore tight end has found the end zone three times in his last two games, and now faces the Eagles who have allowed five touchdowns to the tight end through as many weeks. A touchdown or two seems like a lock as Andrews looks to be the focal point of the offense. Play to your strengths, and more importantly target your opponent’s weaknesses. That sets up Andrews to be the top play at tight end at a position filled with uncertainty.

New York Giants vs. WAS ($3,200)

Does it feel good? No. But at least cornerback James Bradberry has played at an All-Pro level this season, slowing down No. 1 wide receivers in each week to date. If Terry McLaurin is slowed down, the Washington Football Team will seriously struggle. Kyle Allen is prone to a fumble or two after fumbling 16 times last season, or at the very least an interception. Take a shot in a game the Giants just might pull a win away from.

Colder than ice

Deshaun Watson @ TEN ($7,000)

Watson enjoyed a nice boost in his first game devoid of Bill O’Brien, but now faces a red-hot Titans team that ranks 14th against the position. The Titans are a bend-don’t-break defense that is extremely well coached. The Titans also have a strong offense that loves to control the clock, keeping the opposing offense off the field. Watson is also projected to be in 10.5 percent of DraftKings lineups, too high for someone with a perceived capped upside. Josh Allen had a solid game against the Titans but not spectacular — expect the same from Watson who will lack the ceiling to be a good DFS play.

David Montgomery @ CAR ($5,800)

The matchup sure is ripe but so were Montgomery’s matchups against Detroit and Atlanta, where he disappointed both times. Tarik Cohen’s injury allows for some passing work as a baseline, but his ceiling seems to be capped in a weak Bears offense. He has just one rushing touchdown on the season and while he could certainly grab another one in this plum of a matchup, I don’t see his ceiling as high enough for my DFS play. Adding in his high projected ownership (17.4%) and I’m hands off.

Terry McLaurin @ NYG ($5,700)

As previously mentioned with both Montgomery and the Giants defense, McLaurin’s upside is capped. Between a lack of rapport with Kyle Allen that resulted in a mediocre game and the inevitable blanket coverage by Bradberry, there’s a lot to dislike about McLaurin this week. Don’t get me wrong — he’s a great talent. But the Giants have done a good job of neutralizing or limiting opposing teams’ No. 1 wide receiver: that would clearly be McLaurin. He is also expected to be owned in far too many DraftKings lineups at a whopping 23.7 percent projected ownership. Stay away; the matchup is not as good as you think.

Zach Ertz vs. BAL ($5,000)

From dust to dust, Ertz roams fantasy lineups set to disappoint owner’s week in and week out. It’s clear that, even with the cheaper price tag, Ertz cannot handle the constant attention the defense gives him. He hasn’t found the end zone since Week 1. Maybe the return of DeSean Jackson (hamstring) and Alshon Jeffrey (foot) can help Ertz but until then, Ertz should be far away from a starting lineup. Baltimore isn’t a matchup to target either; they’ve allowed just two touchdowns to the tight end this season. Middling.

Bargain Bin/Tournament options

Drew Lock @ NE ($5,400)

I sure like firing up Newton this week but if you want a cheaper option, look no farther than the other side of the field. New England has allowed the 26th-most points to the quarterback and should score aplenty with Newton back in the lineup, leading Lock to play from behind. Jerry Jeudy and Stephon Gilmore should be a terrific matchup and Noah Fant looks likely to return from his ankle injury. He’s cheap, lowly owned and in a good matchup — why not take the chance?

D’Andre Swift @ JAX ($4,500)

Swift is prime to be the DFS value of the week at his price tag in a juicy matchup against Jacksonville. He can catch a few balls and hopefully ride a hot hand against one of the worst run defenses in football. Adrian Peterson will certainly ruin this call but coming off a bye week there’s a chance Swift sees more run time. Just a small boost in volume could be enough for a talent like Swift. At $4,500 in a smash matchup, I’ll take the shot.

DaeSean Hamilton @ NE ($3,000)

Feel free to stack Lock with Hamilton in the most uninspiring DFS stack on the platform. Hamilton will man the slot in lieu of rookie K.J. Hamler’s hamstring injury. While it has not come together for Hamilton since he was drafted, he showed some chemistry with Lock towards the end of last season. The slot receiver should see decent volume in a good matchup with Gilmore doing all he can to lock down the outside. For the bare minimum price, Hamilton is a sneaky start this week.

Irv Smith Jr. vs. ATL ($2,500)

Deep shot. Super deep shot.

But we did see Smith’s volume jump last week when he caught four passes on five targets for 64 yards. He’s done nothing but impress when given the minutes and there’s reason to believe he can do it again against the 27th-ranked tight end defense. Smith has an incredibly cheap price tag and the athleticism to make big plays — if he continues to see almost 70 percent of the snaps there could be a midseason breakout. This could be the start of it as he looks to gain momentum heading into the bye week.

Carolina Panthers vs. CHI ($2,900)

Nick Foles has thrown an interception in each of his last three weeks while also losing a fumble in Week 5. The Panthers do not feature a talented defense, but the Bears are far from the talented offense. A turnover seems likely and with the Bears averaging just 21 points-per-game (27th in the league), the Panthers are the perfect deep shot at DST this week.

Stack of the week

Cam Newton and Julian Edelman vs. DEN

I’ve made the case for Newton and with that I urge you to extend the olive branch to Edelman. He may have looked terrible in recent weeks but remember how this season started. Edelman was a machine with Newton, recording 13 receptions through the first two weeks, and now faces a defense that allows the eighth most points to the wide receiver in DraftKings scoring format. He didn’t lose a step from Weeks 1-2 to Weeks 3-4; this is just who he is. A volume-based wide receiver prone to drops. And while drops certainly hurt his image it shouldn’t ruin his fantasy outlook given the ceiling; he’s shown to still have.