NFL DFS Week 5 licks and #SleeperValue picks

October 10, 2020

**GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY – THIS IS FANTASY FOOTBALL, BUT IF YOU’RE SPENDING MONEY IT’S GAMBLING**

(For new players, I recommend low money games with a smaller numbers of users. This increases your win percentage while you learn how you like to build lineups)

Top Dollar DFS NFL picks

QB

  • Russell Wilson: $7600 – Russell Wilson has 16 TD passes through his first four games, tying Peyton Manning for most ever. The Vikings have one of the worst defenses in the NFL vs the pass, having allowed the 7th-most passing yards and T-6th most passing TDs through 4 weeks. This ain’t rocket science. Let. Russ. Cook.

RB

  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire: $6800 –  The Raiders defense has given up 138.5 rushing yards per game (T-7th most) and have allowed TDs on seven of 11 carries inside the 5-yard line. He’s averaging 18 carries per game & has caught 6/5/3 passes in his last three games. The Chiefs should have control of the game & CEH should see a pretty sizable workload. I see closer to 30 touches (25/5), 100+ rushing yards & a TD on the horizon.
  • Mike Davis: $6400 – No one has been more surprised by Mike Davis’ run than me. I remember him as more of a plodder type RB from his college days, but he’s been surprisingly shifty and quick to climb through the hole as well as soft hands as a receiver. Coming off of back-to-back 20 point games, this game should provide Davis another great opportunity in CMC’s absence.
    • Atlanta’s defense has been fairly stout vs the run in 2020 but they’ve also blown two double-digit, second-half leads. However, ATL has also allowed an average of 8 rec, 64 yards and nearly a score per game to RB’s through the air (3 TD’s in 4 games).
    • Last week vs ARI: 16 carries, 84 yards, 1 TD; 5 rec, 27 yards
      I’m predicting a very similar game this week for Davis with a potential for more in the passing game.

WR

  • DK Metcalf: $7100 See Wilson above. The Vikings are giving up a ton of big plays and Seattle is letting Russell drive this ship this year. Metcalf opened the year with 3 straight games with a TD before going scoreless in Week 4, I see him getting back in the end zone this week vs MIN. I also see him setting a new season high in reception as he has totaled four catches in each game so far.
    • Week 1: 4/95/1
    • Week 2: 4/92/1
    • Week 3: 4/110/1
    • Week 4: 4/106/0
  • Keenan Allen: $6400  Through the first quarter of the season, Keenan Allen has received a 36 percent target share and that was with Austin Ekeler healthy. I mean, somehow, that number will probably go up! Even Terrell Owens would look at a 40 percent target share and say.. don’t we have any other players?! *Ok, maybe not*
  • Julian Edelman: $5700 – Despite his two latest performances, Edelman is graded as the 44th WR by PFF with a 71.9 grade and is currently ranked 15th in the NFL with 31 targets. Assuming this game happens as scheduled (now on Monday) I will be playing Edelman, and if Cam Newton is starting his value goes up even higher. Keep an eye on the COVID-19 news surrounding New England and have a Monday backup plan.
    • Edelman has played 75 percent of his snaps from the slot this season, which matches him up with Denver Slot CB Essang Bassey. Bassey is graded a 45.7 by PFF in 2020 & has allowed catches on 86 percent of passes he is targeted on – feed Julian Edelman!!!

TE

  • Mo Alie-Cox: $4200  Not sure if you knew this, but Mo was a college basketball player. Haha, I’m kidding. That’s probably all you know about him to this point. Even though MAC was out-snapped by Jack Doyle last week, Mo is a bigger threat in the Red Zone and has caught touchdowns in back to back weeks.
    • Cleveland’s defense vs TEs
      • Week 1: 7/61/2 – BAL
      • Week 2: 11/87/1 – CIN
      • Week 3: 4/31/0 – WAS
      • Week 4: 6/96/1 – DAL

HONORABLE MENTION: James Robinson – JAX ($6700), Robby Anderson – CAR ($5900)

Week 5 #SleeperValue Picks

QB

  • Justin Herbert: $6000 – I’m not going to lie, I was very skeptical of Herbert post-draft, but darn it, every time I watch him, I’m impressed. Starting with Hard Knocks, to his surprise start vs KC when he trucked a Chiefs LB into oblivion, to the 65-yard BOMB he threw last week. The sick part is, he is just scratching the surface of his potential. Play Herbert vs NO, the team will most likely be trailing and Herbert will continue to make big plays against a banged up Saints Defense.
    • If you didn’t see Hard Knocks this season, HBO captured Herbert attempting to bond with his veteran skill players and there’s a scene where he is walking with Keenan Allen. Herbert said, “if you think about it, it’s literally my job to get you the ball. You can think of me as your assistant” and if you think there’s a WR1 out there who wouldn’t die to hear that then I can’t help you lol. 

RB

  • David Johnson: $5200 – With the changing of the guard in Houston (BOB), I see a slight shift in the offensive play style. Sure, they will still spread it out and sling it around when they have to as Watson is one of the best spread/deep ball QBs in the league, but there will be a concerted effort to run the ball and take pressure off of their star QB. Romeo Crennel is old school and he wants to shorten games by running the football.
    • If you look at Joe Mixon’s performance last week, this Jaguars defense should provide Johnson with a breakout opportunity of his own. Mixon scored 3 touchdowns and compiled 181 total yards. Johnson doesn’t have the same level of explosiveness but perhaps 100+ total yards and a score? Toss in a few catches & it’s a party.
  • Damien Harris: $4300 – Before DH went down in “pre-season” with a bad finger injury which required surgery and an IR stint, he was the buzz of camp and the presumed lead back for the Patriots. Last week in his return, he toted the ball 17 times for exactly 100 yards. This set a new season high for carries by a NE running back and with Sony Michel out he should once again lead the team in carries. With James White back, Burkhead will take a seat and it will be Harris/White as primary RBs. Belichick has proven me wrong before though…

WR

  • Justin Jefferson: $5500 – Seattle’s defense is surrendering an abysmal 401.8 passing yards/game this season. This is a sign of both bad play & also a symptom of being 4-0. Opposing offenses are forced to throw the ball because they are trailing most of the game. The MVP candidate-Russell Wilson isn’t happy about not receiving an MVP vote in his career, so he’s unleashing havoc in 2020. Therefore, I believe the Vikings will be chucking the ball around to keep up with Wilson & Co. I Might be one week late calling him a sleeper, but he’s going to break another ceiling in Week 5. Start Jefferson.
    • 90.6 PFF Grade – No. 1 rated WR
    • Positional Alignment: (at snap, per PFF) playing primarily LWR & Slot WR (86 percent of snaps).
      • LWR: 35 percent 
        • Seattle’s RCB – Tre Flowers has a PFF grade of 45.7 (allowing 83 percent catch rate)
      • SLWR: 51 percent
        • Seattle’s SLCB – Ugo Amadi has a PFF grade of 70.3 (allowing 68 percent catch rate)
  • Tee Higgins : $4900 – Higgins has slowly seen his snap count, target share and production rise with each week and I value him as a borderline weekly FLEX play in season long formats. Sadly, it looks like he is going to take over AJ Green’s role in this offense eventually, if he doesn’t completely faze him out before season’s end. Green typically FEASTS on Baltimore so, I believe Higgins will shine in this matchup – outside of Marlon Humphrey, the BAL secondary doesn’t grade out favorably according to PFF. Plus, Cincinnati passes the ball 2nd most in the league. 
    • Snap Count by week (team rank): 15 (5th), 60 (2nd), 57 (led team), 43 (3rd)
    • Targets by week (production): 0 (0/0), 6 (3/35), 9 (5/40/2), 7 (4/77)
    • Higgins is tied with AJ Green with 4 Red Zone targets and has caught 3, including 2 TDs.
  • Deebo Samuel: $5300 – Deebo Samuel was a catalyst for this San Francisco 49ers team during their dominant 2019 season. Coming back from off-season surgery last week, HC Kyle Shanahan wasted zero time getting Deebo back involved in the offense and even though he may not be back to 100 percent in terms of snap count. Shanahan will have schemes in his game plan this week to get the ball in Samuel’s hands when he is on the field.
    • On average in 2020, Miami has allowed 20 targets, 14 receptions, 211 yards and 1 TD per game to WRs, so between Samuel & Brandon Aiyuk it should be time to eat.
    • MIA’s secondary has allowed 14 receptions of 20+ yards, 4 receptions of 40+ yards with a long of 57 yards to WR’s in 2020. All of this production came in two games vs BUF & SEA.

TE

  • Drew Sample: $3700 – The Bengals offense has the 2nd most drop backs in the NFL through 4 weeks and let’s be honest, the odds of CIN controlling this game from start to finish is slim-to-none. They will be playing from behind and Sample is one of Joe Burrow’s trusted targets, having trained together all offseason and building their rapport.
    • The Ravens defense got torched by TE’s the first three weeks of the season until holding Logan Thomas to only 1/8 last week.
      • Week 1: 6/70/1
      • Week 2: 9/78/1
      • Week 3: 6/87/0
    • Sample is a cheap option who should see volume and has a high-floor in this matchup with Baltimore.